A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu
Hope, as the saying goes, springs external. President Donald Trump has trumpeted an imminent peace deal with Iran so many times that it's easy to lose track. But this time he's offered something tantalisingly specific - a weekend signing ceremony in Europe with his vice president - and that was enough for stock investors to jump right back into an already frothy market.
Since then, Iran has attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz,
denied it had reached a final decision on any deal and vowed not to compromise on its red-line demands.
Still, the response was a full-throated risk-on roar across Asia. South Korea led the charge with a monstrous 8% jump, while Japan's Nikkei leapt 3.5%. European bourses are slated to open almost 2% higher, with Wall Street futures adding to a strong overnight rally.
Bonds also rallied as oil prices hit two-month lows and lessened inflation fear. The European Central Bank had to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly three years to nip war-driven inflation in the bud, but if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, the chance for a follow-up hike next month will dwindle.
For Kevin Warsh, who is about to chair his first U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week, a peace deal would be a godsend, perhaps even putting rate cuts back on the table.
Elsewhere, it seems to be the season for central bank sick notes. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss next week's meeting, where a hike to 1% is widely expected, as he recovers from a liver cyst.
Russia's central bank meets next Friday and its chief, Elvira Nabiullina, has not been seen since May 28 due to illness. President Vladimir Putin has already signalled he expects a rate cut, much like a certain president would want in the U.S.
Before all the central bank excitement, Elon Musk's SpaceX debuts on the stock market today after raising a record $75 billion, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion and making its founder the world's first trillionaire (a word not even recognised by our spellchecker). A strong opening would provide one more reason to be bullish.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
• Prospects of an imminent peace deal in the Gulf
• SpaceX begins trading on the NASDAQ
• University of Michigan June consumer sentiment survey
• Monthly UK GDP data, French and German final CPI for May
(By Stella Qiu; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
