By Hyeyoon Cho and Jihoon Lee
SEOUL, June 29 (Reuters) - South Korean exports likely posted their strongest annual growth in nearly five decades in June, as semiconductor shipments broke fresh records in the wake of a boom in global AI investment, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, surged 61.0% from a year earlier, the median estimate of 13 economists polled by Reuters showed.
That would top the 53.4% pace in May and mark the strongest
growth since October 1978. Exports have climbed since June 2025, with the pace quickening to double digits from December.
The export windfall has been underpinned by chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix on surging chip prices driven by a global boom in AI investment.
"With chip prices climbing and token usage at the world's major language models rising, the strong run in memory chip exports looks set to continue," said An Ki-tae, an economist at NH Investment & Securities.
In the first 20 days of June, exports jumped 60.4% from a year earlier, with semiconductor shipments soaring 188.4% to push the chips' share of total exports to 41.2%, according to data released by the Korea Customs Service.
"With the chip export boom continuing, a global recovery driven by falling oil prices should also support exports of non-chip products," said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities.
South Korea is set to unveil three "mega-projects" to fuel its next growth phase, including a new semiconductor hub in the southwest that local media say could attract investments by Samsung and SK spanning hundreds of billions of dollars over several years.
The survey tipped imports to rise 26.3% from a year earlier, the sharpest increase since August 2022, after gaining 20.7% in the previous month. The monthly trade surplus was forecast at a median $32.58 billion, which would be a fresh record.
On inflation, consumer prices were set to rise 3.2% from a year earlier, which would mark the fastest increase since December 2023.
South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for June on Wednesday, July 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Hyeyoon Cho and Jihoon Lee, Polling by Pulkit Khanna and Pranoy Krishna in Bengaluru; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
