(Corrects paragraph 15 with Trump's travel and campaign schedule, updates headline, adds bullets)
By Nolan D. McCaskill
WASHINGTON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Kentucky Democrats say they have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to flip a US Senate seat in a Republican stronghold. But a couple of things are missing: their governor and money.
Kentucky is one of several states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024 where Republicans are significantly trailing the president's performance, an indication
that Democrats have expanded their pathway to a majority in November's midterm elections. It's not clear, however, that the party will invest its limited resources into flipping seats once considered to be out of reach.
The Democratic wave is crashing hardest in states Trump won by wide margins, though Republicans are also significantly underperforming in Georgia and North Carolina, where Trump won by 2 and 3 percentage points, respectively. The volume of unexpectedly competitive states could scramble the final stretch of the campaign cycle as top officials assess where to spend their war chests.
"Not only is there a swing away from the Republican Party compared to 2024, but the swing actually seems to be somewhat bigger in red America than in blue America, and that's putting these states that Trump won easily very much into play," said David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and entered the political cycle with a favorable map to maintain control of the chamber for the final two years of Trump's presidency. But less than five weeks out from Election Day, polling shows Democrats are competitive in 10 states Trump won by double digits in 2024: Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina and Kentucky.
To win the Senate, Democrats must defend two seats in states Trump carried and win four Republican-held seats, including at least two in states Trump won by double digits. Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas have largely been viewed as Senate battlegrounds this cycle, but the political environment is so poor for Republicans that Democrat Adam Hamilton is narrowly leading US Senator Roger Marshall in recent polls in Kansas, which Trump won by 16 percentage points.
Democratic candidates Angie Nixon of Florida and Annie Andrews of South Carolina are running neck and neck against Republican incumbents in recent polls, which show Democratic-aligned candidates in Nebraska, Mississippi and Kentucky trailing by single digits. Trump carried those states by margins ranging from 13 in Florida to 31 in Kentucky. He told reporters on Monday that "the polls are fake."
Polls capture voter sentiments but don't necessarily predict election outcomes. Several primary polls, for example, showed Francesca Hong leading by 20 or more points in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor. She lost by less than 1%.
KENTUCKY RACE TIGHTENS
Democrat Charles Booker's internal polling has him within single digits of US Representative Andy Barr in the race to succeed longtime Republican US Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. But Barr has a $2 million cash advantage over Booker, whose allies say Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, could give him the boost he needs to win.
"We have a shot here in Kentucky to flip this seat, and we need to do it now," said Pamela Stevenson, minority floor leader of the Kentucky House.
Eric Hyers, Beshear's 2019 and 2023 campaign manager who helps run his In This Together PAC, said the governor has already endorsed Booker.
"They'll likely be together at get-out-the-vote events down the homestretch of the campaign," Hyers said.
Political prognosticators have shifted some races toward Democrats in deeply Republican states, but many of these expansion seats maintain ratings that view them as solidly Republican or likely to remain Republican. The White House is deploying Trump to these states in an apparent effort to juice base turnout in November.
The president will visit Texas and campaign in Oklahoma on Thursday, followed by rallies in Alabama on Friday, Ohio on Saturday and Nebraska on Monday. Trump won Oklahoma by 34 points, Texas by 14, Alabama by 31, Ohio by 11 and Nebraska by 21. His approval rating has fallen to a historic low of 32%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, while his war with Iran and tariffs have driven up prices as voters have consistently highlighted the cost of living as their top concern ahead of the midterms. That likely makes him more of a liability than an asset in traditional battlegrounds, political analysts say.
DEMOCRATS SEE EXPANDED SENATE MAP
Democrats say they have transformed the map of races in play.
"Our goal has always been a Democratic Senate majority, and the pathways to get there have only gotten bigger since the start of the cycle," said Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC. Super PACs can raise and spend unlimited sums but cannot coordinate with candidates, campaigns or party committees.
French said Republicans have diverted resources from Georgia and North Carolina to Republican strongholds, where she said Republicans are starting to talk about gas prices and other costs.
While some Republicans have leaned into culture war issues such as transgender athletes in girls' and women's sports, other Republicans have begun distancing themselves from the Trump administration. That includes Republicans in states such as Kansas and Mississippi, where US Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith acknowledged in a social media video last week that fuel cost was her constituents' top issue.
"I feel it, too, every time I fill up my truck to get around the state," she said. "This administration is working to end the conflict of Iran, which will ultimately lower the price of fuel."
MONEY REMAINS UNCERTAIN FACTOR
Republicans are already outspending Democrats by millions of dollars - tens of millions in some cases - on future ad reservations in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
Republicans in reach states - Republican strongholds that could flip to Democrats in a wave election - also have significant financial advantages over their opponents, with the exception of South Carolina, where Andrews entered July with more than $4 million on hand. US Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat in July after the death of her brother US Senator Lindsey Graham, won the Republican nomination in an August special primary runoff but reported having just $250,000 as of August 5.
Rufus Gifford, former finance chair for Joe Biden's and Kamala Harris' presidential campaigns, said there are strategic advantages to Democrats investing in expansion states, such as forcing Republicans to play defense in areas they didn't expect.
"The truth is that many of these states have been fool's gold for Democrats for a very, very long time," he said. But "there's very little doubt that we have a shot in some of these even more reach states."
(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Daniel Wallis)
