ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey's main opposition party, already battered by an unprecedented legal crackdown, could see its leader ousted by a court on Monday in what some see as a test of the country's shaky balance between democracy and autocracy.
An Ankara court is set to decide whether to annul the party's 2023 congress over alleged procedural irregularities - a move that would strip its chairman, Ozgur Ozel, of his title and further erode the opposition's leadership and authority.
Hundreds of members
of the Republican People's Party (CHP) have been jailed pending trial in a sprawling probe into alleged graft and terrorism links, among them President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
The centrist CHP, which denies the charges against it, is level with Erdogan's Islamic-rooted, conservative AK party (AKP) in polls. Ozel, 50, its scrappy, hoarse-voiced leader, has risen to prominence since Imamoglu's detention.
Anti-Erdogan street protests have flared again in the last week, including in Ankara on Sunday, over a legal crackdown critics call politicised and anti-democratic. The government rejects this, saying the judiciary is independent.
"This is a serious moment that signals a regime change in Turkey from a competitive authoritarianism, in which opposition parties could still win elections, to a kind of hegemonic authoritarianism, in which they are more symbolic and unable to win," said Seren Selvin Korkmaz, co-founder and co-director of IstanPol Institute, an Istanbul-based think tank.
Turkish stocks, bonds and lira have skidded ahead of the court decision. They crashed in March when Imamoglu was jailed pending trial, underscoring concerns over rule of law in the major emerging market economy where inflation remains above 30%.
If the court cancels the congress and ousts Ozel, it could name a trustee to run the party or reinstate former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu, whom Erdogan defeated in 2023 elections but has since lost much trust within the CHP.
It could also reject the case, brought by a CHP member, or delay a ruling.
The legal crackdown on the party, which began in October last year, has sharpened concerns over what critics call Turkey's autocratic slide in which the courts, media, military, central bank and other formerly more independent institutions have bent to Erdogan's will over his 22-year reign.
Government officials and some analysts say last year's local elections - in which the CHP swept most major cities in the biggest ever defeat for Erdogan's AKP - showed that democracy underpinned NATO member Turkey, despite critics' concerns.
The ouster of Ozel could throw the opposition into further disarray and infighting, boosting Erdogan's chances of extending his rule.
"Now for the first time we can see the government intervening in the internal affairs of the main opposition party (and) selecting who can govern it," said Korkmaz.
At the weekend authorities detained 48 more people, including a district mayor, as part of the CHP probe, which is separate from the Ankara court decision and centred on its power base Istanbul.
(Reporting by Huseyin Hayatsever; Additional reporting and writing by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Daren Butler and Clarence Fernandez)
