By Andy Sullivan, Helen Coster, Ahmed Aboulenein and Tim McLaughlin
WASHINGTON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration is sending $500 payments to nearly 1 million Americans this week, in a move that strategists say could potentially influence races that may determine whether his Republicans maintain control of Congress in the November midterm elections.
The White House says the payments are a refund for what it describes as excessive fees charged to people who purchase health insurance
through the Affordable Care Act.
"That money belongs to hard-working Americans, not the Government, and now, I am returning it to you!" Trump wrote in a letter sent to recipients on Thursday.
The payments will not go out nationwide. Certain residents who live in the 30 states that rely on the federal HealthCare.gov marketplace to provide coverage will receive a check. Those who live in the 20 states that operate their own programs will not. While 19 million people rely on Obamacare, only 950,000 of them will get payments, according to the White House.
The qualifying states encompass most of the marquee statewide races in the November 3 election. Eight of the nine US Senate races that nonpartisan analysts regard as the most competitive will take place in these states, along with 10 of the 12 most competitive governors' races.
Some 71% of the Trump administration's payments -- $339 million in total -- will go to people who live in those 13 states, according to a Reuters analysis of US government data.
Democratic candidates and analysts call the payments a clear attempt to sway the election, but also say it is not enough to cover the increased costs voters have shouldered since Trump returned to office.
"Voters aren't looking for Donald Trump to cut them a check," said Chris Pappas, New Hampshire's Democratic Senate nominee. "They just want him to understand that affordability isn't a hoax and that their lives are getting more expensive."
A perennial battleground, New Hampshire this year has competitive races for Senate, governor and one of its two US House seats, according to nonpartisan analysts.
Some 28,400 residents of the state will receive payments, the White House says -- equal to 2% of the population. Pappas' opponent, Republican John Sununu, did not respond to requests for comment.
The White House did not respond to accusations they are trying to influence the election.
WILL IT AFFECT THE VOTE?
Republican strategist Ryan Williams said the payments will not change the fundamental dynamics of the election but could sway voters on the margins.
"If you can curry favor with even a small group of undecided voters who might be happy with the check they got, it could make a difference," he said.
Trump has sought to leverage other public funds for political ends. Last month, he proposed sending $5,000 checks to all adult US citizens if the Republicans keep control of the House and Senate in the midterms, though some Republicans in Congress have reacted with skepticism. He has also tried to cut off billions of dollars in transportation and other federal aid to Democratic-run states like Minnesota and New York, though those efforts have foundered in court.
"How many times has Trump tried to buy folks' votes? It's pretty damn obvious," said Eric Stern, a Democratic strategist who is working on races in several competitive states. "Everybody loves money, so maybe it will have an impact."
Trump is not the only president to make such explicit promises. Campaigning in a Georgia runoff election in January 2021, President-elect Joe Biden told voters they would receive $2,000 payments if they elected Democrat Raphael Warnock and won control of the Senate. That promise was partially fulfilled two months later, when Congress approved $1,400 payments as part of a COVID-19 relief package passed on a party-line vote.
Biden also delivered on a campaign promise to cancel nearly $189 billion in student debt, a core concern of the college-educated voters who make up the Democratic base.
Cornell University professor Douglas Kriner has found that similar efforts by past presidents have translated into votes. He said Trump's payments were more likely to shore up Republican support, rather than convert Democratic-leaning voters.
"There are good reasons to expect that it could have some electoral effect, you know, and it might be worth a percentage point or two," he said.
Insurers that provide Obamacare plans include UnitedHealth's insurance division UnitedHealthcare, Elevance, Centene and Molina Healthcare. The Obamacare payments will only go to participants who are paying full price this year, rather than the subsidized coverage that most qualify for. Most of those people report household incomes above four times the federal poverty level, according to the White House -- roughly $132,000 for a family of four.
Those people qualified for subsidized coverage under a COVID-era expansion which the Republican-controlled Congress allowed to expire at the end of 2025.
Costs have risen dramatically since then.
KFF, a health research organization, estimated that costs for this group could quadruple in some states this year to over $2,200 per month.
"The $500 could help those people, but it likely for the majority of them is not going to offset how much more they're paying for their premium this year," KFF vice president Cynthia Cox said.
(Reporting by Andy Sullivan, Helen Coster, Ahmed Aboulenein and Timothy McLaughlin; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Daniel Wallis)
