By Maria Martinez
BERLIN, Dec 9 (Reuters) - German exports rose slightly in October, confounding expectations for a decline thanks to European Union trade, while shipments to the United States and China fell sharply.
Exports from Europe's biggest economy rose by 0.1% in October compared with the previous month, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Tuesday.
A Reuters poll had forecast a 0.5% decrease.
"The volatility from U.S. front-loading appears to have passed, and German exports are back
to their new normality: sluggish growth," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.
The Trump administration imposed a 15% import tariff on most goods from the EU under a deal reached with the 27-nation bloc in July. The U.S. was Germany's biggest bilateral trading partner in 2024 with two-way goods trade totalling 253 billion euros ($297 billion).
EU EXPORTS UP, US AND CHINA EXPORTS DOWN
Exports to EU countries rose by 2.7% on the month, while exports of goods to countries outside the EU declined by 3.3%.
"The EU stabilises the export performance of German companies," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noting that companies are losing market share in the U.S. and China.
This gives hope that the headwinds from foreign trade will not be quite as strong in the coming months as had been feared in view of the friction in global trade, said Ralph Solveen, senior economist at Commerzbank.
Exports to the U.S. decreased by 7.8% from September.
The downward trend resumed after an increase in exports in September, following five consecutive declines due to Washington's tariffs on European imports.
Exports to the U.S. were down 8.3% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, exports to China decreased by 5.8% and imports fell by 5.2% on the month.
Nevertheless, German imports from China were up by more than 10% this year, Brzeski said, adding that this illustrates "an increasingly uneven relationship".
The influx of imports has gathered momentum since Trump imposed tariffs on China, and industry bosses, as well as governments, want the European Union to use its powers to protect local businesses and jobs.
German exporters are currently facing a triple China shock: weaker demand for German products in China, increased competition from Chinese producers and dependence on Chinese rare earths, Brzeski said.
"So far, the European market looks unable to offset these global headwinds," Brzeski said.
FOREIGN TRADE SURPLUS WIDENS
Imports were down 1.2% on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis.
The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 16.9 billion euros in October, up from 15.3 billion euros in September and 14.6 billion euros in October 2024.
($1 = 0.8589 euros)
(Reporting by Ozan Ergenay and Simon Ferdinand Eibach in GdanskEditing by Miranda Murray and Sharon Singleton)
