By Tim Reid
WASHINGTON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Michigan voters head to the polls on Tuesday in a high-stakes Democratic Senate primary that could shape the battle for control of Congress and the future of the Democratic Party amid a fierce internal debate over U.S. support for Israel.
The contest pits Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official who wants to end unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel and accuses it of genocide, against U.S. Representative Haley Stevens, a moderate backed
by pro-Israel groups and a longtime outspoken supporter of Israel.
The race is the latest battleground between progressives and moderates over U.S. support for Israel, an issue that has played out in primaries nationwide this year. But unlike contests in liberal bastions, this is a statewide race in a critical Midwestern swing state ahead of November's midterms — a seat Democrats must win in the fight for Senate control.
The outcome could offer the clearest signal yet of whether Democratic voters are more receptive to an anti-establishment message hostile to Israel and big money in politics, or a more moderate approach supportive of Israel, according to analysts and party strategists interviewed by Reuters.
Frank Lowenstein, a former special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations under President Barack Obama, said the primary was a bellwether for Democrats' ideological future and could shape how their 2028 presidential candidates approach relations with Israel.
"This will help inform them about how tough to be on Israel," he said. "It's teed up to be a pretty clear choice."
Israel's favorability rating among Democrats fell from 59% in 2018 to 22% in May, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.
But, the primary is also a test of broader voter frustrations over economic concerns and the party establishment, Democratic strategists said.
An El-Sayed win would underscore the anger fueling demand for new leadership — and the appeal of his call to reinvest taxpayer dollars at home rather than in Israel's war in Gaza.
A Stevens win would signal she made her case despite anti-establishment headwinds, with economic concerns and the desire to beat Republicans outweighing Israel.
"Either way, Democratic leaders shouldn't ignore the anger at the status quo fueling El-Sayed's campaign or assume a Stevens win lets the party off the hook," Democratic strategist Karen Finney said.
Voters in Michigan, Virginia and Washington State will also be deciding on U.S. House candidates in Democratic primaries on Tuesday, including a handful that could decide if the party retakes the lower chamber. Four of those races are considered general election toss-ups.
PROGRESSIVES AND MODERATES TAKE SIDES
The winner of the Senate primary will face former Republican Representative Mike Rogers, a vocal supporter of Israel in a state President Donald Trump narrowly won in 2024.
El-Sayed has been endorsed by and held rallies with two high-profile progressives: Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
Analysts say one significant factor in his favor is that Michigan is home to some of the country's largest Arab-American communities, where hostility to Israel runs deep.
Recent polls show El-Sayed leading by an average of 8 percentage points, although one Detroit News survey in early July had Stevens up by 7 percentage points.
El-Sayed supports progressive causes like universal healthcare, abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and getting corporate money out of politics. He told Reuters in an interview that ending unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel was not just a human rights issue, but about helping American families.
"Gaza and Israel is an affordability issue. I would rather spend our money on healthcare and schools and infrastructure here at home rather than bombing other people elsewhere."
El-Sayed said he had focused on issues affecting Michigan voters, while Democratic leaders had sought to recast the race as a national referendum on the party's future.
Stevens and her allies argue that she would make a stronger general election candidate against Rogers because she is more likely to appeal to independents in a race expected to be decided at the margins.
Stevens has been backed by the party establishment, including Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, and Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan's two-term governor.
In emailed responses to Reuters, Stevens largely declined to answer questions about Israel or the money she has taken from pro-Israel groups, including over $30 million from the main super PAC for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, one of Washington’s most influential foreign-policy lobbying organizations.
"No one influences my vote other than the people of Michigan," she said.
Stevens has been critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including in a July debate. "Mr. Netanyahu has not made us safer, has not brought us closer to peace. And he’s endangered Jews here in America and around the world," she said.
(Reporting by Tim Reid, Editing by Ross Colvin and Alistair Bell)
