COPENHAGEN, March 24 (Reuters) - Danes vote in an election on Tuesday that might hand Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen a third term thanks to her staunch line against U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland even though cost-of-living worries have hurt her leftist credentials.
Opinion polls show her Social Democrats are headed for their weakest result since before World War Two: many Danes blame Frederiksen for not doing enough to protect their Nordic welfare model, while others point to growing
weariness after nearly seven years of her leadership.
Frederiksen, 48, called the vote months before an October deadline, in what observers said was an effort to capitalise on an uptick in popularity when Trump's rhetoric about controlling Greenland intensified in January and he refused to rule out military force.
But the Greenland issue has since moved to a less heated diplomatic track and has been overtaken by domestic concerns including a proposal for a wealth tax and debates about immigration.
Still, Frederiksen has campaigned on a promise that her tough and tested leadership skills will help the nation of 6 million navigate a complex relationship with Washington and a European response to Russia's war with Ukraine.
"I know that sometimes I express myself a bit bluntly," she said during a recent campaign event. "But given the times we live in, it is perhaps very good that there are some things that cannot be misunderstood: that Russia should not be allowed to win or that Greenland is not for sale."
TESTING TIMES
Frederiksen, who has led Denmark since 2019, was the first premier to bridge the left-right divide in Denmark in more than 40 years, but her coalition is now projected to lose its parliamentary majority.
"To a large degree, this election is about Mette Frederiksen," said political analyst Hans Engell, adding that, while some voters view her as the right person at a time of crisis, others see her as too authoritarian.
Her Social Democrats, whose tough asylum reforms had alienated some on the left, have recovered in polls since the Greenland crisis, rising from a December low of 17% to around 21%.
But the left-leaning bloc is still expected to fall short of the 90 seats needed for a majority in Denmark's 179-seat Folketing, with projections pointing to around 85 seats.
With left-wing allies expected to hold firm and the right bloc fractured, however, she remains the favourite to form the next government as parties reposition themselves along more traditional left-right lines.
Key campaign issues include Frederiksen's proposal to reintroduce a wealth tax to fund investments in education and welfare, a move aimed at signalling a leftward shift.
In Denmark's parliamentary system a government need not command a majority - it simply must not have one against it.
The right-leaning bloc is led by Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen of the Liberal Party, while the outcome could hinge on former Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, leader of the centrist Moderates and current foreign minister, who is positioned to play kingmaker.
Rasmussen's alignment either with Frederiksen's bloc or a right-leaning combination could determine who forms the next government.
In all, 12 parties are contesting the ballot. Additionally, four seats allocated to candidates from Greenland and the Faroe Islands may prove decisive.
Observers are also watching out for voting outcomes in the massive Arctic island, seeking signs whether the governing coalition in Nuuk could be crumbling, a possibly troubling issue at a time when Denmark is in talks with U.S. and Greenlandic officials about future policy.
Voting starts at 8 a.m. local time (0700 GMT) and polling stations close at 8 p.m., with exit polls due shortly after.
(Writing by Justyna Pawlak, editing by xxx)
