MEXICO CITY, June 8 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual inflation likely slowed in May, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will maintain its interest rate at current levels for an extended period.
• The median estimate from 15 analysts projected annual headline inflation falling to 4.03% from 4.45% in April.
• If confirmed, the reading would mark a second consecutive month of decline, though it remains above the central bank's target of 3%, plus or minus one percentage
point.
• On a monthly basis, headline consumer prices are estimated to have fallen 0.12%, driven primarily by seasonal electricity subsidies in some cities and lower prices for fruits and vegetables.
• Core inflation, which strips out volatile items, is seen easing to 4.20% year-on-year from 4.26% — a fourth straight monthly decline and the lowest since May 2025.
• The monthly core index is expected to rise 0.24%, reflecting continued pressure on goods, though partially offset by "Hot Sale" online shopping discounts.
• Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% in early May, with its governing board saying it considers it appropriate to hold the rate at its current level going forward.
• The rate decision was not unanimous: deputy governors Jonathan Heath and Galia Borja voted to leave the rate unchanged at 6.75%.
• Market expectations from both Citi and central bank surveys suggest the benchmark rate will remain at 6.50% through the end of 2026 and 2027.
• Official data from the national statistics agency INEGI will be released on Tuesday.
• The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for June 25.
(Reporting by Gabriel Burin and Noe Torres, Writing by Natalia Siniawski, Editing by Iñigo Alexander)
