MOSCOW, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Russia’s economy will continue to slow in the first half of the year, with a recovery possible only by late 2026 and more likely in 2027, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov was quoted as saying on Thursday.
His ministry had previously projected that growth would begin to recover in the second half of 2026.
After rapid expansion of 4.1% and 4.9% in 2023–2024, driven by heavy state spending on the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economy has slowed sharply. GDP grew just 1% in 2025.
Officials have described the slowdown as a "managed cooling" or "soft landing" aimed at curbing inflation through tight monetary policy. President Vladimir Putin has instructed the government and the central bank to restore higher economic growth and boost investment activity as early as 2026.
The easing in GDP growth and the expected decline in investment in 2025 are the "natural price" of reducing inflation, Interfax cited Reshetnikov as saying. Full-year investment figures for last year have not yet been published.
"Overall, we now see some scope for further monetary easing. But we must understand that whatever decisions are made now, their impact on the economy will be delayed. The estimated lag is 6–9 months, sometimes longer," he said.
"Therefore, we expect a further economic slowdown in the first half of the year. Growth will resume at best by the end of 2026, but most likely in 2027."
A Reuters poll of 24 analysts showed that 16 expect the central bank to keep its key rate at 16% at its meeting on Friday, while eight forecast a 50-basis-point cut to 15.5%.
The government’s current forecast for 2026 is for GDP growth of 1.3%. The economy ministry will update its outlook in March, Reshetnikov said.
The International Monetary Fund has cut its projection for Russia’s GDP growth this year to 0.8%, implying the economy will grow at around a quarter of the expected global average of 3.3%.
Some officials and analysts say Russia is now in a borderline state between stagnation and recession.
(Writing by Darya Korsunskaya; editing by Mark Trevelyan)
