By Marcela Ayres
BRASILIA, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Brazil expects a trade surplus of $70 billion to $90 billion in 2026, after last year's result topped government projections, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services said on Tuesday.
Latin America's largest economy posted a $68.3 billion surplus in 2025, down from $74.2 billion in 2024 as imports grew faster than exports, underscoring economic resilience despite high borrowing costs to curb inflation.
The figure beat the ministry's most
recent forecast of a $61 billion trade surplus, and followed a surplus of $9.6 billion for December.
"We are optimistic that even in a scenario of greater geopolitical instability, foreign trade will grow," Vice President Geraldo Alckmin told a press conference.
BRAZIL HOPEFUL OF TRADE DEALS
Alckmin, who also heads the ministry, said the government remains hopeful of concluding a trade deal between Mercosur and the European Union and expects the South American bloc to seal a free trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates.
He added Brazil aims to expand preferential tariffs with India, Mexico and Canada.
Last year, imports jumped 6.7%, while exports rose 3.5%, even after the imposition of steeper U.S. tariffs on several goods, later partly reversed.
Alckmin said Brazil also expects to advance talks with the U.S. and address non-tariff issues involving rare earths, big tech and data centers.
"The limiting factor for artificial intelligence in the world will be energy, and Brazil has abundant and renewable energy," he said.
Asked about the potential impact of increased Venezuelan oil output following the capture of Venezuela's leader by the U.S., Alckmin acknowledged oil is Brazil's top export but noted any market effect would not be immediate.
"Venezuela has large oil reserves, but things are not done overnight; investment is needed," he said.
BY THE NUMBERS
In 2025, Brazilian export gains were driven by higher shipments, by value, of soybeans, beef, coffee and corn, offsetting annual declines in crude oil and iron ore amid falling commodity prices.
China remained Brazil's top trading partner, with exports up 6% at $100 billion, nearly 30% of total overseas sales. Brazilian shipments to the United States, the second-largest destination, fell 6.6% to $37.7 billion.
(Reporting by Marcela Ayres in Brasilia; Editing by Franklin Paul, Matthew Lewis, Rod Nickel)
