LONDON (Reuters) -A roller-coaster 2025 is entering its final weeks. The one-year anniversary of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election arrives alongside key central bank decisions and earnings that could set the short-term tone for markets.
Here's a look at the week ahead from Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore, Alden Bentley in New York and Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe and Amanda Cooper in London.
1/ TRICK OR TREAT?
On the final day of October, investors are gorging on Halloween treats,
but they should brace for a potentially tricky November.
The Federal Reserve has delivered its second rate cut of the year, Nvidia's market value hit $5 trillion as AI fever drives stocks ever higher, and battered bonds end October with strong (price) gains.
But in France, a fragmented parliament is beset by volatile budget talks, while Britain faces a key Nov 26 budget test.
The U.S. Supreme Court on November 5 hears arguments on the legality of Trump's sweeping tariffs, and as a government shutdown continues, uncertainty bubbling away in the background could morph into market angst.
2/ JOBLESS
The premier event in the coming week may be the non-release of U.S. payrolls data for the second time due to the government shutdown.
The employment report is the biggest U.S. economic data-point each month and normally falls on the first Friday. There will be no data on job openings either.
Without those, the Federal Reserve will continue to fly almost blind as it navigates what looked like a cooling labour market when it commenced easing in September and followed up on October 29 with another quarter-point cut.
Markets will have to focus on a second-tier private-sector release: Wednesday's ADP October National Employment report, which does not have a reliable history of foreshadowing the government jobs data.
Earnings are still coming thick and fast, but most of the AI megacaps have already reported and kept Wall Street's runaway train on track.
3/ PUMP IT UP
The oil market finds itself at an interesting juncture.
On the one hand, there's a possibility that new Western sanctions on Russian oil might help curb a ballooning global surplus of unused oil. On the other, the world's largest exporters are jostling for market share as they unwind self-imposed COVID-era production cuts.
Sunday's OPEC+ meeting could yield a modest increase in output in December, according to sources familiar with the talks.
In the meantime, the crude price has struggled to get much above $65 a barrel, having stuck to a range of around $63-78 for the better part of a year. With so much uncertainty still over the impact on energy demand from the seismic shifts in global trade, even the International Energy Agency says the most likely direction for prices - in the absence of major geopolitical tensions - is lower.
4/ AUSTRALIA'S "MATERIAL MISS"
The Reserve Bank of Australia is broadly expected to keep interest rates on hold at 3.6% when it meets on Tuesday. But the most recent hot inflation report has crushed hopes of a rate cut and complicates the outlook.
Consumer prices jumped the most in 2-1/2 years in the September quarter as electricity and travel costs climbed, with annual CPI inflation rate jumping to 3.2%, from 2.1%, above the top end of the RBA's target band.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock has said a Q3 rise in core inflation of 0.9% would constitute a "material miss". The even-higher reading suggests the RBA, which has made three 25-basis-points cuts so far this year, is now firmly on hold.
Westpac analysts recently wrote that even a February cut was "far from certain now", given this quarter's inflation surprise.
5/ BOE BRINGS THE DRAMA
Good news for those who want more central bank excitement: the Bank of England is here.
While markets were all-but-fully pricing in a Fed cut and ECB and BOJ holds this week - expectations that the central banks met - the situation is different for the BoE, with markets seeing around a 30% chance of 25 basis point easing.
If that doesn't change ahead of Thursday's meeting, someone will be disappointed no matter what, and there may be meaningful moves in sterling and gilts.
The decision will come down to how policymakers view September's 3.8% CPI print.
Big brokerages are split: Goldman and Barclays see a cut, BofA, UBS and Deutsche a hold. Either way, it's going to be close. There are nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee and a 5-4 thriller is possible.
(Compiled by Amanda Cooper; Graphics by Sumanta Sen and Kripa Jayaram; Editing by Conor Humphries)
