By Nolan D. McCaskill
WASHINGTON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Republicans in the US House of Representatives are defending a narrow majority in November's midterm elections. History suggests Democrats will gain seats — they would need to net four to win control of the chamber — but Republicans kickstarted a national redistricting battle that could make Democrats' path to a majority slightly more difficult.
Here are some races to watch:
NY-17
US Representative Mike Lawler of New York is one of just three Republicans
who represent a congressional district Kamala Harris won in 2024. The others are an open seat in Nebraska and a Pennsylvania district US Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is favored to win. That makes Lawler the most vulnerable House Republican up for reelection.
His opponent, Cait Conley, is a combat veteran and national security expert.
Both campaigns have raised about $10 million through September, though Republicans have more than doubled Democrats in outside spending: $12.6 million to $6 million.
CO-8
Former Colorado state Representative Manny Rutinel is among a broad group of Democratic challengers who have outraised Republican incumbents. Rutinel is challenging freshman Republican US Representative Gabe Evans in a district that's nearly 40% Hispanic. President Donald Trump won it by 1.8 percentage points in 2024.
US House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned with Evans last week, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and US Representative Nanette Diaz Barragan of California recently joined Rutinel on the trail.
Outside spending in the Colorado district is almost identical, with Republicans and Democrats each pouring in roughly $12 million.
TX-34
When Texas Republicans kicked off a national gerrymandering war against Democrats in the hopes of defying historical trends to hold their fragile majority in Washington, they sought to pick up five seats. Yet as Election Day nears, three of those seats are in play — all in South Texas.
Democratic US Representatives Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar are now running in districts President Donald Trump won by 10 percentage points in 2024. The third district, which was redrawn from a safe Democratic seat into one Trump also carried by 10 points, is an open race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia.
Gonzalez faces Republican Eric Flores, a former Texas Army National Guard infantry captain and former assistant US attorney. Gonzalez has outraised Flores by $1 million through October 14 and entered the final stretch with $1.4 million cash on hand to his opponent's $250,000. But Republican groups have outspent Democrats in this race, $13 million to $10.2 million.
NC-1
Republicans redrew Democratic US Representative Don Davis' North Carolina district, shifting it from a district Trump won by 3 points to one he carried by double digits.
Davis is seeking reelection anyway. His opponent, retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, is a former senior Pentagon official in the Trump administration who was suspended by the prediction market platform Kalshi and fined after betting $1,000 on herself to win in November, which she called "a dumb mistake."
The district has seen about $30 million in outside spending — $16 million from Republicans and $14 million from Democrats.
FL-25
Like Texas Republicans, Florida Republicans may have overreached when they redrew their state's congressional map to net their party four additional seats. State lawmakers targeted Democratic US Representatives Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who ran for reelection in a safe Democratic district.
Trump won Soto's new district by nearly 18 points, which may be too much for Soto to overcome next month. But Democrats remain competitive in the redrawn districts that Trump carried by 9 to 10 points.
Democratic US Representative Jared Moskowitz, who is running in the district that was drawn to oust Wasserman Schultz, has outraised his opponent by $2 million. But outside spending on behalf of Republican Scott Singer, a former mayor of Boca Raton, has helped close the gap. Republicans have outspent Democrats, $14.5 million to $13.8 million.
ME-2
The retirement of centrist Democratic US Representative Jared Golden in a district Trump won by 9 points in 2024 opened a key flip opportunity for Republicans. Former Maine Governor Paul LePage is running against progressive state auditor Matt Dunlap.
LePage has narrowly outraised Dunlap and had nearly twice as much available to spend as of October 14. Republican outside groups have also outspent Democrats by $2 million here.
An internal poll from the Dunlap campaign this month showed the Democrat up 4 points, which falls within the survey's margin of error. Election forecasters rate the race "lean Republican."
OH-7
US Representative Max Miller of Ohio, a Republican, was reelected by 15 points in 2024, though an independent candidate got 13% of the vote. Trump won the district by a smaller margin than Miller, and domestic and child abuse allegations made by his ex-wife and a former girlfriend have made the congressman uniquely vulnerable.
Miller has denied the allegations, but his ex-wife's father, US Senator Bernie Moreno, a fellow Ohio Republican, has called on him to resign and end his reelection campaign.
The once-safe seat is now seen as a toss-up. Brian Poindexter, the Democratic nominee, is an ironworker and a Brook Park city councilor. He has raised $400,000 more than Miller and reported about $800,000 in the bank by mid-October, nearly six times as much as Miller's $136,000 on hand.
Democrats have been on the offensive here, with $10 million in outside spending to Republicans' $6 million.
IA-1
US Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa faces a familiar opponent in former state Representative Christina Bohannan, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully against Miller-Meeks in 2022 and 2024. This time, however, could be different.
Trump is deeply unpopular, and the combination of tariffs and the war in Iran has elevated cost-of-living concerns. Trump's policies have driven up the prices of diesel and fertilizer as voters have said affordability is their top issue this cycle.
Bohannan has outraised the incumbent by about $800,000 and reported having about $400,000 more cash than Miller-Meeks through mid-October. Democrats have also outspent Republicans here, $10 million to $7 million.
WA-3
Centrist Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington authored a resolution condemning a fellow Democrat and helped Republicans advance their agenda by bucking her party on traditionally party-line procedural votes. That may help her in a district Trump narrowly won in 2024.
Gluesenkamp Perez finished second in Washington's top-two primary, trailing state Senate Republican Leader John Braun.
Gluesenkamp Perez has raised $6 million more than Braun this cycle, but her campaign had spent nearly all of it as of mid-October. Braun entered the final phase of the campaign with a $500,000 cash-on-hand advantage. Republicans have significantly outspent Democrats, $12.5 million to $5.4 million.
A Democratic poll released last week showed Gluesenkamp Perez leading by 1, well within the margin of error.
MT-1
Trump won Republican US Representative Ryan Zinke's Montana district by nearly 12 points in 2024. Neither Trump nor Zinke is on the ballot this year.
Combat veteran Aaron Flint, a Republican, is running against Democrat Sam Forstag, a union leader and smokejumper — a firefighter who parachutes into remote areas.
Forstag has outraised and outspent Flint, and outside spending has been nearly equal with Republicans investing $7.9 million to Democrats' $7.5 million.
Two polls this month show Forstag with a narrow lead.
(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; additional reporting by Andy SullivanEditing by Peter Graff)
