By Mike Dolan
June 9 (Reuters) -
What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets
Relief rally, dip-buying or a dead cat bounce? However you want to characterize Wall Street’s modest rebound on Monday, what is clear is that it was concentrated in places you'd expect: tech megacaps that have been in the vanguard of the AI boom. Meanwhile, 60% of the S&P 500 ended in the red again yesterday.
As to Monday's individual movers, chipmaker Marvell Technology’s
inclusion in the S&P 500 index helped its stock jump by 9%.
I’ll get into that and more below.
But first, check out my latest column on whether AI could become a public utility.
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Where does Monday's rebound leave us? It's hard to see past the AI juggernaut with all the IPO hoopla in the background. Elon Musk's SpaceX is due to list at the end of the week, and OpenAI on Monday said it had also confidentially filed for an IPO. With Anthropic also set to hit this summer, the market will be absorbing an unprecedented amount of issuance.
Meantime, China's May trade data overnight showed it riding the AI boom as its export growth blew past expectations, jumping almost 20% year-on-year. This is thanks in large part to the enormous demand for memory chips and tech equipment, but also the soaring prices of those memory chips.
And that speaks to the flip side of this AI boom: the potential inflationary fallout and how it complicates the picture for the Federal Reserve and other central banks. An ECB interest rate hike is believed to be nailed on for this week, and the Bank of Japan is expected to move in that direction this month too.
Over in the Middle East, Iran and Israel both indicated that the latest round of missile exchanges had been halted for now. That allowed oil prices to give back their early gains on Monday, having risen as much as 5% earlier in the day, and took some of the edge out of Fed rate-hike bets. That also helps explain Monday’s modest stock rebound.
On Tuesday, Asian stocks rallied and U.S. futures edged up before the bell, while oil prices fell further. Today will see the data diary tilt toward housing, while Wednesday will bring the May U.S. consumer price release and results from Oracle after the bell.
Chart of the day
SpaceX is this week planning to raise $75 billion in a debut equity listing, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation that would place it among the top 10 most valuable U.S.-listed firms, even though only 7% of its listed shares will be freely tradeable at launch on June 12.
Although the sale is reportedly two times oversubscribed and has earmarked as much as 30%, or $22.5 billion, for retail investors, S&P Global last week shut out SpaceX from quick inclusion in the S&P 500 after deciding it would not change its criteria - including a rule that a company must be profitable.
Meanwhile, index provider MSCI confirmed on Monday it will apply existing rules for early inclusion of large IPOs in its Global Standard Indexes, likely clearing the way for SpaceX to join.
Today's events to watch
• U.S. April trade balance (8:30 a.m. EDT), May existing home sales (10 a.m. EDT)
• U.S. 3-year note auction (1 p.m. EDT)
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(By Mike Dolan)
