By Isabel Teles and Gabriel Burin
SAO PAULO/BUENOS AIRES, June 16 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank is set to deliver a third consecutive 25-basis-point interest rate cut on Wednesday, a Reuters poll of economists showed, as policymakers battle persistent inflation pressures while gradually unwinding borrowing costs from near two-decade highs.
Banco Central do Brasil's monetary policy committee, known as Copom, began a moderate easing cycle in March after holding the cost of borrowing at 15% through
the second half of 2025.
Copom is expected to cut its key Selic rate by a quarter-percentage point for the third time in a row at its Wednesday meeting, to 14.25%, according to 41 of 45 economists polled between June 12 and June 15. Four saw no change.
"The committee's communication between meetings is consistent with a further reduction in the Selic rate at a similar pace," said Joao Savignon, head of macroeconomic research at Kinitro Capital, adding the overall planning of the cycle had become more uncertain.
Policymakers will likely repeat a cautious tone in their statement, given persistent pressures on consumer prices, analysts said. Most other central banks are now raising rates or considering doing so soon.
Annual inflation in Latin America's largest economy picked up to 4.72% in May, from 4.39% in April, drifting further above the central bank's inflation target of 3% with a margin of 1.5 percentage points in either direction.
The El Nino weather pattern, a periodic warming of sea surfaces that causes ripple effects in global weather, has become an additional potential concern for inflation, BTG Pactual economists wrote in a report.
"When we consider some additional unanchoring of expectations ... the scope for interest rate cuts this year becomes virtually nil," they said.
A nearly two-thirds majority—19 out of 31—of poll participants who answered an additional question on the central bank's next move said they expected another 25 basis-point cut at the next meeting in August.
Median estimates of quarterly forecasts showed the Selic ending 2026 at 13.75% and closing 2027 at 12.00%. That was similar to consensus views of economists surveyed in a weekly central bank poll.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
(Reporting and polling by Isabel Teles in Sao Paulo and Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Ross Finley and Milla Nissi-Prussak)
