By Crispian Balmer and Angelo Amante
ROME, March 24 (Reuters) - Giorgia Meloni's defeat in a justice reform referendum has thrust the Italian leader into the toughest phase of her premiership, with her authority weakened, her reform programme in tatters and no easy way to regain the initiative.
The prime minister's right-wing coalition suffered a resounding loss in the March 22-23 vote, puncturing the aura of political invincibility she has cultivated since taking office in 2022.
As the result came
in, Meloni made clear she had no plans to resign, but none of her options looks attractive, political analysts say.
Governing as if nothing has changed risks leaving her a lame-duck prime minister, with the anaemic economy under growing strain and her closeness to U.S. President Donald Trump seen by pollsters as an increasing liability.
Alternatively, she could seek to reshape the electoral law to try to boost her chances of winning the next general election, due in 2027, but would open herself to charges of upending the rules to suit her political interests.
A third option could be to gamble on forcing an early ballot this spring before the full impact of the Iran war hits Italy's already fragile economy, hoping to catch the fragmented centre-left opposition unprepared.
"It's clear that what's at stake is the end of the legislature. Even the date of the next election is uncertain," said Nicola Lupo, director of the Centre for Parliamentary Studies at Rome's Luiss University.
OPPOSITION BLOC REMAINS FRAGMENTED
For all the damage, the referendum did not amount to a blanket rejection of Meloni, with 37% of those who voted "No" telling Youtrend pollsters she should remain in office.
"This wasn't an opposition victory so much as a victory for the judiciary," said Massimiliano Panarari, a political analyst at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia.
The centre-left opposition hailed Monday's result as evidence the political cycle was turning its way, but its two main components, the Democratic Party and 5-Star Movement, remain deeply divided over key issues, including foreign policy.
These splits could tempt Meloni to resign shortly and force a snap election, Luiss' Lupo said, adding that the government had pushed for a swift referendum in March to have the eventual option of holding a pre-summer vote.
"Meloni knows the next budget won't allow for generous spending, so she might say it would be better to go to elections now and not give the opposition time to organise," he said.
While none of her allies are openly suggesting this, some of her partners - including Maurizio Lupi, head of the small "Us Moderates" party - are urging a change to the electoral law to introduce a system based solely on proportional representation.
Latest polls show the conservative bloc, including Meloni's Brothers of Italy party, the League and Forza Italia, in the lead, but vulnerable to defeat in a future ballot because of the way seats are distributed under the current system.
Studies have suggested a pure PR system could give the ruling coalition a comfortable majority.
Although government parties presented a draft bill on this last month, some of Meloni's allies urged caution after the referendum, saying voters would not approve.
"It would be stupid," Stefano Candiani, a League lawmaker in the lower chamber, told Reuters.
"There are so many problems facing Italians, including the Iran war and (high) cost of living, that anyone who wants to tie up parliament with this electoral law is crazy."
TRUMP TIES, WEAK ECONOMY DRAG ON MELONI
Pollsters confirmed an unexpectedly high turnout in the justice referendum was driven by voters motivated by broader political and economic concerns rather than the technical details of the complex judicial reform.
"In the last 10 days, the number of people saying they would vote grew by 10 percentage points. We had never seen such a surge," said pollster Antonio Noto.
The referendum's timing proved challenging for Meloni, with the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran turning a spotlight on her friendship with Trump and costing her votes, analysts said.
"Even if she has tried to put a bit of distance between herself and him in recent days, the shift hasn't been very noticeable," said political analyst Panarari.
Meloni risks treading water for the next 12 months, with her reform agenda in shreds and little time left to enact meaningful change.
"From this day forward, she is a lame duck," said centrist leader Matteo Renzi, who quit as prime minister in 2016 after losing a referendum on his own constitutional reform agenda.
He told La7 news channel that opposition parties would draw strength from Monday's result, saying the Meloni-backed "Yes" camp had until recently enjoyed a big lead.
"If beating Meloni in the referendum wasn't easy, it will be far easier to beat her on issues like inflation, fuel taxes, the cost of living, and public safety in major cities," he said.
(Additional reporting by Alvise Armellini, Editing by Timothy Heritage)
