By Soren Jeppesen
COPENHAGEN, March 17 (Reuters) - Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has staked her leadership on defying U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland. Convincing voters at home to give her a third term is proving harder.
She heads into a March 24 general election betting that her defiant stand over the Arctic island will overcome growing doubts about whether she has paid enough attention to a cost-of-living crisis in Denmark.
Frederiksen, whose Social Democrats suffered a historic
defeat in municipal elections last November, has seen a revival this year which could make her Denmark's longest-serving leader since World War Two if she completes another full term.
Support for the Social Democrats plummeted to 17% in December opinion polls, well below the 28% it won in 2022, before rebounding to around 22% in recent weeks amid what many Danes said was resolute handling of the Greenland dispute.
UNPOPULAR DECISIONS
Frederiksen, 48, entered parliament at 24 and has led the Social Democrats since 2015, becoming Denmark's youngest prime minister four years later and only the second woman to lead the Nordic country's government.
She built much of her early career on defending Danish control over welfare, labour rules and borders, while casting deeper EU integration as a constraint on sovereignty.
However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and growing uncertainty over U.S. security guarantees caused her to shift. She dropped Denmark's opposition to collective EU debt, backed joint defence procurement and last year moved away from the other members of the fiscally conservative "Frugal Four", saying European unity had become a security necessity.
One of the most damaging episodes for Frederiksen came during the Covid-19 pandemic, when her government in 2020 ordered Denmark's entire mink population culled over fears they could carry the virus.
A public inquiry later concluded that the move lacked a legal basis, and that Frederiksen and her government "grossly misled" the public, though it also found she had not personally been aware that she overstepped her authority.
The mink scandal was not an isolated episode. Her government's decision to abolish a public holiday to help finance increased defence spending angered workers across the country.
Meanwhile, she has been accused of alienating political partners with a top-down leadership style, and for forming a coalition with the centre-right despite a 2022 campaign promise of left-leaning majority government.
She has sharply curbed immigration, particularly from non-Western nations, curbing the momentum of far-right rivals seeking to capitalise on discontent with asylum policies but driving away traditional allies on the left.
"People are really tired of her. She dominates everything in Danish politics, yet she has changed her mind on everything, from being the most Eurosceptic prime minister Denmark has ever had, to one of its most pro-European. That wears enormously on voters' trust," said Noa Redington, a political analyst.
STRONG ABROAD, WEAKER AT HOME
The election will test support for a leader who has navigated an extraordinary sequence of crises, including a global pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drone incursions, the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, and the confrontation with Washington over Greenland.
Each crisis has raised Frederiksen's international profile, even as it deepened some voters' sense that her attention lies elsewhere.
If she wins the election and serves a full term she will have been in office for almost 11 years, the longest of any prime minister since fellow Social Democrat Thorvald Stauning, whose 15 years in power ended in 1942.
Meanwhile, Frederiksen's profile in European politics has steadily risen, as she rallied allies in support of Greenland and emerged as one of Ukraine's strongest backers.
In 2023, Frederiksen was floated as a possible candidate for NATO secretary-general, and Danes still ask themselves whether she will eventually head abroad.
"There is something of a farewell tour about all this. If she is re-elected, her entire third term will be dominated by the question of when does she leave? Nobody believes she will serve a full term again," said Redington.
(Reporting by Soren Jeppesen, additional reporting by Stine Jacobsen, editing by Terje Solsvik and Alex Richardson)
