By David Hood-Nuño and Evan Garcia
DONNA, Texas, Sept 23 (Reuters) - South Texas unfurls in long stretches of highways across flat landscapes dotted with pump jacks, mesquite trees, and gas stations sporting prices that voters swear should not be this high. This territory swung heavily to Donald Trump in 2024 — but may shift again in 2026.
From the outskirts of San Antonio, through historic, sprawling ranchlands to the border city of McAllen, Reuters traveled more than 360 miles (580 km) and spoke
to more than 30 Latino voters, who shared a similar refrain: as President, Trump had a chance to lower prices across this expanse, where trucks and beef barbacoa are king, and failed.
Many are no longer convinced the Republican Party is looking out for people like them. Frustration over economic pressures and Trump's immigration agenda is rising, exposing cracks in what Republican officials hoped was a durable political realignment among Latino Americans. Trump's approval rating nationwide has fallen to 33%, the lowest since returning to office, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll.
That uncertainty poses a problem for Texas Republicans, who redrew congressional maps last year betting the Latino contingent who helped power Trump's 2024 win would remain in their column.
Now, they're grappling with whether this notoriously swingy voting group may snap back to Democrats in the Lone Star State as they have in other parts of the country in off-year and special elections, said David Wasserman, elections analyst at the nonpartisan forecaster Cook Political Report.
Texas Republicans sought to make several districts more favorable to their candidates ahead of the 2026 elections, basing their changes on Trump's 2024 performance, the strongest showing among Latino voters by a Republican presidential candidate this century. Rather than dilute Latino voting power, many of the newly configured districts remained heavily Latino, including Texas' 15th and 35th Congressional Districts.
In District 15, Latinos account for 74.5% of the citizen voting-age population. In District 35, they make up 51.6%, according to the state's redistricting analysis. Yet both districts have become more competitive, with political prognostication site Sabato's Crystal Ball rating the 15th District a Toss-up and the 35th District Lean Republican. Cook Political rates the 15th Lean Republican.
An August 2026 Texas Southern University poll found Democratic congressional candidates leading in three South Texas districts, including the 15th. Interviews with almost 50 analysts, activists, pollsters and voters back up the idea that some Latinos in South Texas who voted for Trump appear open to Democrats.
One of those is Saúl Guajardo, 53, of McAllen, who voted for Trump three times.
“I used to be a conservative, far-right,” he said. “I'm more open than ever before to vote Democrat.”
Guajardo said he and his wife Terrie live paycheck-to-paycheck, despite steady incomes. Gasoline is a big weight, as the average price of a gallon was $4.09 in the McAllen area as of September 22, according to AAA data.
Terrie said Trump's strict immigration enforcement "crackdown" was too harsh for people who simply want to work in the United States, as his policies have permanently separated some families trying to make a life in the U.S.
Polling suggests many Latinos are souring on Republicans. A September poll of 1,000 Latinos in Texas conducted for Cook Political and TelevisaUnivision found that 18% of Latinos who voted for Trump no longer support him, and almost two-thirds of Latino voters would be less likely to vote for candidates who support Trump’s immigration policies.
For both parties, those shifts explain both the promise and peril of Latino voters. Their support has often proved less dependent on party loyalty than on whether they believe elected officials will improve their economic circumstances.
“It's not one of these that you're talking to a wall because they're all going to vote Democrat or they're all going to vote Republican,” said Daniel Alegre, CEO of Spanish-language media company TelevisaUnivision. “They're all going to vote for the person who is going to make their lives better.”
Republicans reject the premise that Latino voters are moving away from them. Christian Martinez, the National Republican Congressional Committee's national Hispanic press secretary, said Democrats spent years responding to declining support among Hispanic voters with “denial, excuses, and condescension,” instead of addressing concerns that drove many working-class voters toward Republicans.
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The risk that redistricting backfires is particularly clear in the 15th District, which in its reconfigured form would have given Trump an 18-point win in 2024, compared with a two-point margin in 2020 and a 14-point loss in his first election in 2016.
That district's incumbent, Republican Monica De La Cruz, is facing a unique opponent in Democratic singer Bobby Pulido, whose celebrity status predates his entry into politics. His signature hit, "Desvelado," has nearly 610 million Spotify streams, and he has won two Latin Grammy Awards.
His economic message and crossover appeal have turned the district into one of the state's most closely watched races. A late August Texas Southern University poll had Pulido leading De La Cruz by five percentage points.
Dressed in a cowboy hat, blue jeans and cowboy boots, Pulido crisscrosses South Texas on weekends, hopping from one quinceañera, a traditional 15th birthday celebration for girls in Latino communities, to another. His surprise — and free — appearances often end with a gift for the celebrant: a white hat with pink lettering reading "Make Quinceañeras Great Again."
Pulido said Democrats lost ground with Latino voters in South Texas because they failed to address the economic concerns that matter most to working families, though he said both major parties often misread the electorate.
“As a Democrat, I think that we misunderstand the Hispanic vote and I think, honestly, I think Republicans don't get it either,” Pulido told Reuters. "We don't want handouts, we're very proud. We just want an opportunity to go work and make something and provide for our families, and then work towards our kids prospering better than we did."
On August 1, Pulido surprised Melody Silva and roughly 200 relatives and friends gathered for her quinceañera. They screamed when he appeared at the top of a staircase and cheered louder when he mentioned his congressional race.
"He's got such great roots here in the Valley," said Michael Silva, Melody's father and a police officer in McAllen. "I feel like he's not just representing the Valley, but representing the raza, you know, the people, for us — locals."
His name recognition appears to be one of his greatest strengths. Among the dozen voters Reuters spoke to at a monthly outdoor market roughly 180 miles (290 km) north in rural Beeville, Pulido's name was as ubiquitous as the summer heat.
De La Cruz's campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
Ramon Barrera, 36, known as "The Texas Tea Guy" on social media, sees the shift in sentiment. He posts short TikTok updates "spilling the tea" about politics and community issues, crisscrossing South Texas in his Dodge Ram 3500 to talk to locals, along with hunting for old furniture to refurbish.
He voted for Trump for the first time in 2024, describing himself as conservative but not strongly aligned with either party. He said Trump's term has been a disappointment, opening the door for him to vote for Pulido and Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat running for governor against Republican Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth consecutive term.
“The S&P 500 looks great, but our wallets don't,” he said.
(Reporting by David Hood-Nuño; Editing by Kat Stafford and David Gaffen)
