By Luis Jaime Acosta
BOGOTA, June 18 (Reuters) - Colombia's next president must regain territorial control from illegal armed groups who gained ground under the current government, while also working to reduce violence and meet other security challenges, former officials and analysts say.
Sunday's presidential vote pits two sharply different visions for the future against each other in a country that has endured six decades of internal conflict that has left more than 450,000 dead.
Right-wing candidate
Abelardo De La Espriella, 47, promises a stepped-up military offensive against armed groups, drug trafficking and organized crime. The lawyer and political newcomer, who leads in polls heading into the runoff, also vows to end peace talks that have not delivered concrete results during the four-year term of outgoing leftist president Gustavo Petro.
Senator Ivan Cepeda, 63, wants to continue peace talks and push the legislature to pass a bill allowing gangs to receive legal benefits in exchange for dismantling their organizations.
“Security was the central issue of this campaign, which led to De La Espriella’s victory in the first-round,” political analyst Eduardo Pizarro told Reuters. He added that perceptions of insecurity have risen in cities, including extortion and petty crime concerns. At the same time, the expansion of armed groups in rural areas has affected more civilians.
Whoever wins, there may be an increase in attacks by armed groups under the new government, as they seek to demonstrate their strength and secure advantages in any potential negotiations, said a retired officer who was part of the military high command under Petro.
“The next government must understand that what the country needs is not only a stronger security strategy or a negotiated solution, but that both options must be combined in a coordinated way,” said the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The next government must rebuild the armed forces, improve intelligence and dent revenues of criminal groups, Pizarro said.
Homicides and robberies have declined in most major cities, according to official data, while extortion has increased in at least one urban area.
Armed groups nearly doubled their ranks between 2022 and the first half of 2026, according to a security report seen by Reuters, growing from 13,000 members to 25,000 in that time. These groups include the Clan del Golfo crime gang, dissident factions of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrilla group and the National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels. The groups have expanded their control in mostly rural areas key to drug trafficking and illegal mining.
A quarter of the country’s municipalities have a presence of or activity by armed groups, according to a report by the ombudsman’s office.
Security sources said Petro removed more than 70 army and police generals, including intelligence experts, from active service. This reduced the operational capacity of the security forces.
WAR, NEGOTIATION OR BOTH?
A former general who requested anonymity said that confronting armed groups will also require restoring the military’s mobility capabilities after much of its fleet of U.S.-made Black Hawk and Russian Mi-17 helicopters has been grounded due to shortages of spare parts. The general added that the government must also promote a voluntary substitution program to help farmers switch from coca, the base ingredient in cocaine, to other crops.
“It will not be easy — there is a lot of work to do — but it can be achieved,” he said.
Defense Minister Pedro Sanchez has defended the government's efforts, saying that under Petro nearly 16,000 members of armed groups have been removed from the conflict, largely through captures and surrenders. Sanchez also cited a 60% increase in the destruction of heavy machinery used in illegal mining and the seizure of 3,300 metric tons of cocaine nearly equaling total confiscations of the past three governments.
“Some seek to promote fear in order to later sell hope. They promote a problem or enlarge or maximize that problem, exaggerate it, and then try to sell the solution, at least rhetorically. And in Colombia’s case, they do it with the issue of security,” Sanchez told Reuters on Wednesday evening.
Criminals cannot be fought with weapons alone, because of their ties to corrupt authorities and international criminal networks, he said, adding that crop substitution programs, legalization of informal miners and investment in health, education and roads are all part of a comprehensive strategy.
Besides improving the armed forces’ territorial control and intelligence capabilities, progress must also be made on the 2016 peace agreement with the former FARC, which included social reforms in rural areas that remain unfulfilled, the Ideas for Peace Foundation (FIP), an independent think tank, said in a recent report.
“We cannot fall into the reductionism of choosing between peace or security,” it said.
(Reporting by Luis Jaime Acosta; Editing by Julia Symmes Cobb and David Gregorio)
