BRASILIA, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Brazil has waited for years to see who would get the backing of former President Jair Bolsonaro in the 2026 presidential race.
But his endorsement of his eldest son this month raised doubts if the ex-president still has the heft to hold his right-wing coalition together.
Barred from seeking public office since 2023 and now serving a 27-year sentence for a failed coup plot, the hard-right firebrand stunned allies and investors by throwing his weight behind a presidential
run by his son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
Financial markets plunged on the news. Many investors had bet the ex-president would back a more seasoned candidate such as Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, his former minister, to challenge leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
ALLIES SKEPTICAL
While the 44-year-old Flavio Bolsonaro quickly got public backing from his siblings and their political party, other conservative powerbrokers have been slow to throw their weight behind him.
Freitas, 50, was publicly silent on the matter for over 48 hours before telling reporters the senator "can count on us."
The lukewarm response in Brasilia and jitters in the market have emboldened a crowd of other right-wing politicians with presidential ambitions and made clear how fragmented the opposition is less than a year before the October 2026 election.
"The Bolsonaros expected that once their father decided, everybody would bow down and go with it," said political analyst Thomas Traumann. "(But) besides the obvious ones, his party, nobody came out and said 'What a great idea!'"
The ex-president's endorsement may even be more damaging than helpful. Half of Brazilians say they would not vote for a candidate supported by Jair Bolsonaro next year, according to a Datafolha poll conducted days before he endorsed his son.
LULA LEADING POLLS
The younger Bolsonaro may also struggle to make his case purely in terms of electoral competitiveness with Lula, 80, who is seeking a fourth presidential term next year.
The Datafolha survey and a more recent one by pollster AtlasIntel both showed Senator Bolsonaro trailing Lula by double digits in a simulated matchup, while Freitas was four or five percentage points behind.
A survey by pollster Quaest showed Senator Bolsonaro, Freitas and center-right Parana Governor Ratinho Junior all polling 10 percentage points behind Lula in direct matchups, while others mooted as candidates such as governors Ronaldo Caiado of Goias and Romeu Zema of Minas Gerais lagged slightly more.
A senator who identifies as center-right, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Flavio Bolsonaro would have a harder time than other candidates unifying the right.
Senator Bolsonaro has nonetheless made his case in recent weeks to centrist party chieftains and business leaders, calling himself "a more moderate, balanced and centered Bolsonaro."
He has floated market-friendly names as references for his economic plans, but a definition of his agenda and advisers will take months, according to people familiar with his thinking.
BOLSONARISMO DIVIDED
While the younger Bolsonaro prioritizes bridge-building on the center-right, he will also face challenges from ideological upstarts that grew out of his father's right-wing coalition.
"The decision by the Bolsonaro camp to back Flavio Bolsonaro sparked widespread dissatisfaction, not only across the broader right but even within the hardcore Bolsonaro base itself," said Congressman Kim Kataguiri, one of the founders of the young, conservative Free Brazil Movement (MBL), which broke with the ex-president in 2019.
"Even within bolsonarismo there are divisions," he said.
Kataguiri, 29, said he expects rejection of Flavio Bolsonaro to open space for the candidacy of 41-year-old Renan Santos, a fellow MBL founder who has vowed to fight corruption and organized crime.
Some conservative strategists warn a fractured field could leave the opposition unprepared to confront Lula.
"If the center-right and the right are not united, there's a great chance we lose the election," said Paulo Kramer, a political scientist who worked on Jair Bolsonaro's 2018 campaign.
(Reporting by Brendan O'BoyleAdditional reporting by Luciana Magalhaes in Sao PauloEditing by Brad Haynes and Rosalba O'Brien)
