By Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam and Ananda Teresia
JAKARTA, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Two major centres of power in Indonesian politics came together in a surprise alliance when former general Prabowo Subianto picked predecessor Joko Widodo's son as his running mate in the 2024 presidential election.
But this week's resignation of Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to avoid impeachment in parliament for a lack of educational qualifications, is widely seen as a sign that partnership is fraying, perhaps presaging a significant
shift in politics.
"Honestly, sitting in this seat was never something I designed, thought about, or pursued," Gibran, 39, said in a farewell video message on Thursday, a day after resigning from the job of vice president.
Gibran went through a "heavy inner struggle" before becoming Prabowo's running mate, he added, as the curtain fell on a two-year tenure that began and ended with contentious court rulings.
Prabowo's choice of the soft-spoken eldest son of Widodo who never expressed political ambitions of his own formed part of a political bargain that let the leader access some of the popularity of Jokowi, as the former president is widely known.
Analysts viewed it as a marriage of convenience between once bitter rivals: Jokowi twice defeated Prabowo for the presidency before giving him his support in a deal that preserved his own political influence and opened the way for a political dynasty.
Gibran's exit this week comes amid reports of growing differences between the leaders, though both sides moved to publicly declare support for each other in the wake of the resignation.
"That Gibran has finally stepped down without any apparent strong political backing to keep him can be interpreted as a sign that the political relationship between Prabowo and Jokowi has undergone a fundamental shift," said Burhanuddin Muhtadi of Singapore's Yusof Ishak Institute.
Analysts say an open split could spark further instability for a government besieged by scandals over signature programmes, such as a free school meals policy, and doubts over its prowess in managing the economy.
Investor sentiment towards Southeast Asia's biggest economy has cooled this year amid scrutiny of the government's fiscal plans, as well as lingering risks of a stock market downgrade by global index provider MSCI.
Gibran's political future is still unclear. His younger brother, Kaesang Pangarep, has begun mobilising the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), in which sources say Jokowi is expected to take a senior leadership position soon.
THRUST INTO THE SPOTLIGHT
With little experience in high office as the mayor of his hometown of Surakarta, a mid-sized city on the island of Java, Gibran's run for vice president was controversial from the start.
He was known to show up at official meetings and public appearances in informal clothes, such as an anime jacket sported in a vice presidential debate in 2024.
In an editorial at the time The Jakarta Post newspaper faulted Gibran for on-stage "antics" that drew laughs and raised doubts about his "fitness to be a national leader".
After a landslide election victory, he cut an isolated figure in office, even by the usual standards of Indonesian vice presidents, though his clothes became more formal and his jocular manner was replaced by silence on key developments.
However, he was not involved in decision-making on key government programmes, for which Prabowo relied more on his own circles, said a government source familiar with Gibran's role.
His most prominent moment in the limelight came with an apology on a school visit in August after hundreds of students were sickened by government-provided free meals, a move that went contrary to government efforts to play down the matter.
TERM STARTED AND ENDED BY THE COURTS
In 2023, the Constitutional Court, headed at the time by Gibran's uncle, scrapped an age limit to free the way for his election candidacy, provoking ethics complaints. The ruling came just days before Prabowo declared Gibran as his running mate.
Another court ruling effectively ended his tenure.
Election law requires vice-presidential candidates to have completed senior high school or an equivalent level of education.
But court rulings last month said the evidence for the certificate submitted by Gibran, who had studied abroad, fell short of proving his graduation, a move that prompted the impeachment proposal.
Lawmakers across the political spectrum backed it on Wednesday, including nearly a dozen from Prabowo's Gerindra party.
Two people with knowledge of Jokowi's thinking said he was disappointed that neither Prabowo nor members of his coalition offered any support when questions were raised about Gibran's educational credentials.
"Gibran’s resignation does not necessarily mean that Jokowi and Prabowo have completely parted ways," said analyst Burhanuddin Muhtadi. "However, one of the most important bonds of their alliance has been severed."
(Reporting by Gibran Peshimam and Ananda Teresia; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
