By Antoni Slodkowski and Ben Blanchard
BEIJING/TAIPEI, April 29 (Reuters) - For 23 million Taiwanese, the most consequential diplomatic meeting of 2026 may be one to which they are not invited.
When U.S. President Donald Trump travels to Beijing next month, his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping has made clear that Taiwan will sit at the top of his agenda, a stark departure from their South Korea meeting last year, where he deliberately set the issue aside.
Taipei will be watching for any sign that Trump,
who has unnerved partners with his transactional approach to alliances, could soften or reframe longstanding U.S. policy on Taiwan in return for China buying U.S. aircraft or farm goods and easing economic pressures.
"Regarding Taiwan, the logic is simple: if the U.S. does not want to fight a major war with China over Taiwan, it should not support Taiwan independence," said Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University's Institute of International Studies, who serves on the policy advisory board of China's foreign ministry.
"Trump has no interest in going to war with China. To avoid a major conflict that involves the U.S., he should make it clear that he won't support independence or take actions that encourage a separatist political agenda."
China's foreign ministry and the U.S. State Department did not respond to requests for comment.
The U.S. follows a "one China policy" by which it officially takes no position on Taiwan's sovereignty and only acknowledges, but does not accept, China's position, which claims the island as its own. The U.S. says it "does not support" Taiwan's independence but will help it maintain self-defence.
Semiconductor powerhouse Taiwan sits at the heart of the military balance in the western Pacific, so even a nuanced change in U.S. wording could affect Beijing's assessment of American resolve to continue its support to the island, experts say. It would unsettle Taipei, and raise fresh questions about Washington's security commitments in Asia.
Trump administration officials have repeatedly said there has been no change on Taiwan policy, and have routinely condemned China for its pressure against the island.
Privately, they stress that Trump has approved considerably more in weapons sales to Taiwan in just over a year in his second term than his predecessor Joe Biden did throughout his presidency.
CHINA REQUESTED CHANGE IN U.S. LANGUAGE ON TAIWAN
At a summit with Biden in 2024, Xi asked him to change U.S. language on Taiwan to "we oppose Taiwan independence," from the current version.
The U.S. has declined to make the change.
People involved in the preparations for Trump's trip say privately that China has been constantly sending similar signals at a working level ahead of the summit, but declined to discuss the details, citing confidentiality of the talks.
Officials in Taiwan, whose government rejects Beijing's sovereignty claim, are on high alert.
"We will be watching whether the U.S. makes any changes to its position on Taiwan Strait issues as a result of that meeting," said Shen Yu-chung, a deputy minister at Taiwan's China-policy-making Mainland Affairs Council.
"We will use the remaining time to intensify policy communications with the U.S."
Taiwan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hsiao Kuang-wei said this week that since Trump took office, his administration "has continuously reaffirmed its support for Taiwan".
China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. It last held war games around the island in late December, following the U.S. announcement of an $11 billion arms sales package for Taiwan, the largest ever.
China has used both the carrot and the stick in the run-up to the meeting.
It has offered "benefits" for Taiwan in trade and tourism. Then, last week, Taipei accused China of pressuring three African countries to block overflight rights for President Lai Ching-te's trip to Eswatini, causing it to be cancelled.
The U.S. strongly criticised China's actions.
'ROCK SOLID' COMMITMENT
Lai says Taiwan is already an independent country called the Republic of China, its official name. Beijing views Lai as both a "separatist" and illegitimate leader who is pushing the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to the brink of war.
The top U.S. diplomat in Taiwan, Raymond Greene, has been offering public reassurances in the run-up to the meeting that U.S. commitments, including under the Taiwan Relations Act which mandates arms sales, remain "rock solid".
Former Trump adviser Robert O'Brien said he would not become "the first American president to lose Taiwan. That would not be a Donald Trump goal to have in mind. That's not the legacy he wants."
The stakes for the U.S. are high too given Taiwan's strategic location as the site where Washington discreetly makes use of the island's advanced radar stations and listening posts high up in Taiwan's mountains that are pointed at China, according to security sources.
"Does the United States really want to lose one of its best locations for gathering intelligence on China?" said a Western security source, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of discussing security matters.
(Reporting by Antoni Slodkowski and Ben Blanchard; Additional reporting by Michael Martina in Washington; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
