BEIJING, Jan 23 (Reuters) - China is likely to set a 2026 official economic growth target of between 4.5% and 5%, the South China Morning Post reported on Friday, reflecting how even a $1.2 trillion trade
surplus cannot shield the world's No.2 economy from slowing global growth.
The $19 trillion Chinese economy grew 5.0% in 2025, meeting the government's target and defying a second Trump White House intent on slowing it down, by stepping up shipments elsewhere to offset weak domestic consumption, a strategy that economists warn will be increasingly hard to sustain.
The International Monetary Fund expects global growth to hold at 3.3% this year, matching 2025, before slipping by one percentage point in 2027, meaning that Chinese exporters will likely need to accept ever-lower prices if they are to sustain record-breaking shipments.
As such, policymakers are under pressure to rewire the manufacturing juggernaut for a durable post-pandemic recovery built around balance over breakneck expansion: a more resilient model built around mobilising its 1.4 billion strong population to ward off a possible Japan-style stagnation.
The risk is that China begins to feel like an economy that is in recession, even if its headline growth figure continues to far exceed those of other, more developed economies.
Some economists estimate China's economy grew by just 2.5% to 3% last year, leaving a shortfall of around half a trillion dollars, which the Rhodium Group think tank attributes to a sharp drop in fixed-asset investment as domestic demand weakened in the second half.
"Such a target would indicate a tolerance for a moderate deceleration... as Beijing highlights the importance of 'high-quality' development," said the three sources cited by the Hong Kong-based paper.
(Reporting by Joe Cash in Beijing; Additional reporting by Fabiola Arámburo in Mexico City; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Jacqueline Wong)
