By Noel John
Oct 27 (Reuters) - Analysts cut their 2026 gold price forecast for a second straight quarter because of high Treasury yields, a strong US dollar and expectations that rates will stay high for longer, but still expect a recovery in 2027, a Reuters survey shows.
The survey of 30 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks returned a median gold forecast of $4,495 per troy ounce for 2026, down from $4,509 estimated three months ago.
The 2027 forecast is $4,650 compared to $4,610
in the previous poll. [COMMODS-GOLDPREC/POLL]
Gold surged to a record $5,595 an ounce in January before tumbling to around $4,000 now, as the Iran war drove oil prices and Treasury yields higher, strengthened the dollar and reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion for investors.
"We expect prices to consolidate and recover in coming months as market focus shifts to de-dollarisation and currency debasement," said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.
CENTRAL BANKS, FISCAL CONCERNS LEND SUPPORT
Bullion should remain supported by robust central bank purchases and physical demand.
"Absent a Black Swan (and here's hoping there aren't any more) prices are likely to be underpinned by steady improved physical demand from India and China," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell.
Continuing purchases by central banks "are sending the markets a message about managing risk, which is more important than the physical tonnage," she added.
INDUSTRIAL HEADWINDS WEIGH ON SILVER
Analysts expect silver to average $66.75 per ounce in 2027, down from this year's forecast of $70.30, but up from the current price of $53.
Silver's dual role as both a precious and industrial metal has left it more exposed than gold to expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, with analysts citing weakening photovoltaic demand.
Substitution in manufacturing is a negative, while investment sentiment is cautious, they added, following this year's sharp price swings, including a record high of $121.60 in January.
"With solar currently oversupplied and AI under pressure, if only from a sentiment standpoint, silver is likely to underperform gold," O'Connell said.
"Some fresh investor interest is creeping in, but the big reversal in ETFs this year leaves the market oversupplied."
(Reporting by Noel John; additional reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by Pratima Desai and Xevi Fontdegloria)
