By Miranda Murray
BERLIN, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt will go to the polls on Sunday in a closely watched election that could see the Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the first far-right party to take power at a state level since the World War Two.
Under the smiling 35-year-old leader Ulrich Siegmund, the party has been polling comfortably ahead for months, and there is a genuine chance the AfD could take an absolute majority on Sunday evening, particularly
if several smaller parties fail to clear Germany's 5% threshold to enter parliament.
The vote is being closely watched as a barometer for the government of the deeply unpopular Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has attempted to chip away at the AfD's popularity by taking a tougher line on migration and security.
Recent surveys place the AfD at just over 40%, followed by Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU) at 23%.
An absolute majority would allow the AfD to bypass mainstream parties' efforts to keep the party blocked out of power by refusing to work with it under a longstanding "firewall" policy.
Achieving an absolute majority is a high bar to clear in Germany's proportional electoral system, which was designed in part to encourage coalition governments and make it difficult for one party to rule alone.
If the AfD falls short of an outright majority, a CDU-led administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze is the most likely outcome, though the exact shape of any coalition would depend on which parties enter.
Weeks of coalition talks could follow Sunday's vote.
AFD 'CAN NO LONGER BE STOPPED'
For the AfD, the Saxony-Anhalt election is a stepping stone towards its larger ambitions of securing national power in the next federal election scheduled for 2029.
"No matter the outcome of tomorrow's election, we have already made history," said Siegmund at a final rally on Saturday evening.
"Because what we have started here in Saxony-Anhalt -- what is currently sweeping across all of Germany -- can no longer be stopped," he told the crowd in Saxony-Anhalt's capital, Magdeburg.
However, without an absolute majority, the AfD, which has been classified as "far-right extremist" by the state security service, would struggle to enter government due to the firewall.
Such a result opens the prospect of complex coalition negotiations, dependent on which parties can hit the 5% hurdle.
Polls show one of the CDU's current coalition partners, the FDP, falling short, while the other, the SPD, is under 10%.
The small far-left BSW, the only party that has not ruled out a coalition with the AfD, is also likely to miss out.
For Schulze, who is favoured in polls as voters' top choice for leader, combining with the SPD and Greens might not be enough for a majority, but the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the far-left Left Party that could help it reach that threshold.
One option could be a minority government led by Schulze that would depend on passive tolerance from the Left - a model used in the neighbouring eastern German state of Thuringia.
Initial results are expected around 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) on Sunday evening shortly after polls close.
(Reporting by Miranda Murray, Editing by Franklin Paul)
