By Nolan D. McCaskill
PORTLAND, Maine, July 16 (Reuters) - Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins received a political gift when the withdrawal of her opponent Graham Platner threw the Maine Democratic Party into chaos.
Then Immigration and Customs Enforcement fatally shot a man at a traffic stop in the coastal town of Biddeford.
The incident triggered outrage among Mainers and a crisis for Collins, who has formed a durable relationship with voters there, in part by emphasizing her independence from
the policies of President Donald Trump.
Following the fatal shooting, Collins urged Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin to “cease all non-urgent” ICE traffic stops. Mullin initially agreed to do so, but Trump took to Truth Social the morning after to call for ICE to not give up one of its "most important and effective Crime Fighting tools, THE TRAFFIC STOP!"
"Once we do, we are playing right into the criminal’s hands," he wrote. "The Radical Left Dumocrats would like to see this done, but it won’t happen on my watch."
A spokesperson for Collins did not respond to a request for comment.
TRUMP TRIPS UP COLLINS
The episode tied Collins to one of her party’s least popular positions in her home state and called into question how much sway she has in the Republican Party after nearly 30 years in office. Collins reiterated her position on Wednesday, telling reporters on Capitol Hill that stops “should be halted” until an investigation is complete.
But the damage was already done. Political experts across Maine said the president's post was unhelpful to Collins, who is vulnerable as the only Republican senator up for reelection this year in a state that Democrat Kamala Harris won in 2024.
"That does sort of undercut the ability of someone in her position of being able to say, 'I can wield influence and protect my constituents,'" said Ron Schmidt, a political science professor at the University of Southern Maine.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber, and flipping Maine is critical to Democrats' path to winning control of the Senate in the midterm elections.
But Republicans had all the momentum on their side until Monday. Platner's campaign imploded last week following sexual assault allegations, which he denies. Platner, a progressive outsider and oysterman who defeated a sitting governor to become the Democratic nominee, withdrew on Friday, leaving the Maine Democratic Party with roughly two weeks to select a new nominee among 13 candidates.
Many declared candidates ran for governor or the U.S. House of Representatives in the June 9 primary, including Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Nirav Shah, ex-congressional aide Jordan Wood and social worker Paige Loud.
FROM PLATNER FALLOUT TO ICE OUTRAGE
Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine, said immigration has undoubtedly shifted the focus in Maine's Senate race.
"It was all Platner and Platner fallout. None of that was good for the Democrats," Brewer said. "Collins, I think, was probably smartly just kind of being quiet, keeping her head down and letting that be the story, and then all of a sudden ICE becomes the story."
Experts said Democrats could still unseat Collins, who has proven adept at winning reelection and will have a massive financial advantage over the new Democratic nominee. Her campaign raised more than $4 million between April and June, according to a filing on Wednesday, entering July with an $11 million war chest.
Collins has held her seat since 1997, winning reelection in 2020 by nearly nine percentage points as Democrat Joe Biden carried the state by almost the same margin.
"There's very little question in my mind that it is" still a competitive race, said Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington.
Melcher said Trump's most devoted supporters see Collins as insufficiently supportive of the president, while Democrats view her as only willing to buck her party when Republicans don't need her vote to advance their agenda.
Jenna Valente, a social justice advocate and former volunteer photographer with Platner's campaign, said she's heartbroken by what happened to Platner and his movement.
"This seat is absolutely winnable for Democrats despite this massive sinkhole that we've found ourselves in,” she said. “I think that once we name who the next candidate is going to be, everybody's going to throw themselves completely behind them and not lose sight of this being, in my opinion, the most important election of our lifetimes."
(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; Additional reporting by David Morgan and Aleksandra Michalska; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Lincoln Feast.)
