By Richard Cowan
MEDINA, OHIO, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Early voting begins on Tuesday in Ohio, where the winners of November's midterm elections will help determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the US Congress for the next two years, given the state has one Senate seat and two House seats seen as "Toss Ups" by Cook Political Report.
When polls open across the Midwestern state early on Tuesday, voters will be casting ballots at a time when discontent throughout the United States runs deep, especially
over rising prices.
The political party out of power usually benefits in midterm elections and with Republicans holding the White House and both chambers of Congress at a time when President Donald Trump's approval rating is at a record-low 32%, Democrats are feeling increasingly competitive less than a month before the November 3 elections.
INFLATION, WAR ON BALLOT
Political analysts will be watching closely what unfolds in Ohio, as Trump has been a dominant force, especially among blue-collar workers who used to align with the Democratic Party.
But with inflation running at around 3.4%, every visit to a grocery store stirs that discontent because of rising food prices, but also due to rapidly escalating energy and housing costs.
The US war with Iran, launched by Trump on February 28 for reasons that he has not clearly presented to the nation, also has voters worried that it will become yet another "forever war."
The president won Ohio and the state's 17 electoral votes handily in 2016, 2020 and 2024, despite losing the 2020 presidential race to Democrat Joe Biden.
In this election, all eyes will be on whether some of those disaffected Democrats return to their party and if a significant number of independents turn their backs on Trump's Republicans.
SENATE SEAT
Former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, is trying to return to the Senate, where he served for 18 years before being defeated two years ago by Republican Senator Bernie Moreno.
This time around, Brown, a populist Democrat who long railed against US trade deals with foreign competitors, is attempting to unseat Republican Jon Husted in a special election with the winner holding the seat through 2028.
Political analysts see the race between Husted and Brown as a toss-up.
With Republicans currently holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate, Democrats are hoping for a net gain of at least four seats, including in Ohio, in order to control the chamber.
CLOSE HOUSE RACES
Meanwhile, two US House races could help determine next year's majority in that chamber, which Republicans currently hold with a 218-214 margin. One independent is aligned with Republicans and there are two vacancies that will be filled in the midterm elections.
In the seventh congressional district, which includes Medina, just south of Cleveland, incumbent Representative Max Miller, a Republican, is in a tough race in seeking a third term.
While he has raised far more funds than his Democratic opponent and has Trump's endorsement in a Republican-leaning district, Miller's campaign has been hit by allegations of domestic violence, which he denies.
Democrat Brian Poindexter, a labor union iron worker and member of a suburban city council, is mounting an aggressive campaign to unseat Miller.
Meanwhile, in Ohio's 9th congressional district that covers most of northwest Ohio and hugs the shores of Lake Erie, Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur, a moderate who was first elected in 1982, is battling in another toss-up race against Republican challenger Derek Merrin, who nearly defeated her in 2024.
(Reporting by Richard Cowan. Editing by Michael Learmonth and Jonathan Spicer )
