By Oliver Griffin and Luciana Magalhaes
SAO PAULO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Brazil's presidential campaign draws to a close on Thursday, ahead of voting on Sunday in a race that will determine whether Latin America's largest nation follows the conservative shift that has swept the region or charts its own course.
While leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is expected to narrowly top the first round of voting, made up of 13 candidates, polls suggest he is unlikely to secure the majority of valid votes
needed to avoid a runoff.
A second-round vote on October 25 would likely pit Lula, an icon of the global left trying to win his fourth non-consecutive term, against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The far-right former leader's conviction last year for plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election defeat enraged conservatives around the world, including US President Donald Trump, who called the prosecution a "witch hunt."
Throughout the campaign, Lula has warned of foreign interference in the election, including fresh tariffs from Washington. His presidency has been marked by tension with Trump, whose administration has introduced a series of tariffs on Brazilian goods. Lula's tense and ever-shifting relationship with Trump contrasts sharply with that of the Bolsonaro family, who have sought to cozy up to the US president with White House visits.
"Lula believes that, given the good relationship with China, especially in trade, maintaining this independence (from the US) is crucial," said Leonardo Barreto, cofounder of consultancy Think Policy, adding that the Bolsonaro clan have used their Washington ties as a way to level the electoral playing field.
The Bolsonaros "perceive the Americans as a kind of insurance policy, meaning that if any problem arises, the Americans would be willing to react," Barreto said.
Lula has seen a comfortable early lead evaporate in this year's campaign, with most surveys now showing Flavio Bolsonaro on equal footing, polling within the margin of error in their likely second-round matchup.
Despite success with falling inequality and unemployment, Lula has struggled to convince voters to give him a fourth non-consecutive term as they grapple with a rising cost of living, heavy household debts and the growing power of gangs.
As the race has heated up, the president announced a series of measures addressing voter concerns, including a more generous welfare program, policies aimed at easing families in debt and a crackdown on online betting, said Rodrigo Russo, a partner at consultancy firm Control Risks.
Lula "acutely understood that he was in danger and used the power of government with a couple of concrete initiatives to try to secure the votes necessary to win," Russo said.
Candidates are scrambling to win over a shrinking pool of undecided voters, who now account for just 5% of the electorate, according to a Quaest poll published on Monday.
"I don't want to marry you," Lula told hundreds of businessmen at a gathering last week. "I just want one vote."
On Tuesday, a poll from Atlas showed the top two candidates tied for the runoff, with Lula receiving 47.6% of voting intention for the second round, while Flavio had 47.7%.
FAMILY AFFAIRS
Throughout the campaign, Flavio invoked his father, who remains popular among Brazilian conservatives despite his conviction, even using an AI-generated avatar of his dad to kick off his campaign.
"I ask you to welcome with open arms the person I chose to replace me," the avatar said from a screen looming above a campaign rally in July.
The AI-generated appearance stoked controversy because the former president is not allowed to communicate publicly since his conviction, while revealing the senator's dependence on his father's enduring appeal to their right-wing base.
Lula has also faced family controversies, struggling to distance his campaign from legal woes threatening his son, Fabio Luis Lula da Silva, who is under federal police investigation over accusations of influence peddling.
Violent crime has also dominated the list of voter concerns in election polls, prompting candidates to pledge tougher security measures.
Senator Bolsonaro has promised to build five supermax prisons like those in El Salvador, where right-wing President Nayib Bukele has inspired tougher stances on crime across Latin America.
"There's plenty of political mileage in promising tougher punishment," said Robert Muggah, cofounder of think tank Igarape Institute.
Earlier this month, Lula and security officials unveiled new measures to confront criminal groups operating in the country and across its borders, but called for international cooperation rather than intervention, rejecting US statements labeling gangs as "terrorists."
Overshadowing the policy debates, a scandal involving the now-defunct Banco Master has engulfed much of Brazil's political class and renewed public anger over corruption ahead of the vote.
At the center of the scandal is Daniel Vorcaro, the disgraced former head of Banco Master, who was arrested earlier this year for his role in an alleged multibillion-dollar fraud.
The subsequent investigation revealed a web of connections between Vorcaro and top power brokers in Brazil's political class, ensnaring figures from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to Senator Bolsonaro himself, who is under investigation over money laundering tied to the case.
The case has highlighted the "cozy ties and venal behavior" of the country's leaders, said Bryan Harris, managing partner at political and corporate intelligence firm Sabio.
"With new revelations almost daily, an 11th-hour bombshell still has the potential to upend the race completely," Harris added.
(Reporting by Oliver Griffin and Luciana Magalhaes; Additional reporting by Brendan O'Boyle; Editing by Brad Haynes and Aurora Ellis)
