By David Morgan
WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) - Senate Republicans, facing a tough midterm election campaign, hope to turn the Senate's likely rejection of President Donald Trump's voter-ID bill into a liability for Democrats that analysts say could be used to bolster claims of voter fraud in the November balloting.
The SAVE America Act, a Trump-endorsed bill requiring proof of U.S. citizenship in registering to vote and a photo ID for casting ballots, is unlikely to become law ahead of the midterms
because Republicans lack the 60 votes needed for passage in the 100-member Senate.
With Democrats poised to block the legislation, Trump's Republican allies have begun a marathon floor debate to highlight that Democrats oppose photo IDs in voting, an idea that is broadly popular with the public across the political spectrum, according to polls.
"We're going to put every one of them on the record so that everyone in America knows that Republicans support voter ID and Democrats are the party of open borders and illegal voters," Senator John Barrasso, the chamber's No. 2 Republican, told reporters.
Republicans have echoed Trump's false claim that large numbers of people who are in the country illegally vote in U.S. elections.
VOTING BY NON-CITIZENS RARE IN U.S. ELECTIONS
It is already illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections. The practice is extremely rare, according to state government audits of voter rolls and studies by groups on both the right and left. Under the U.S. Constitution, elections are administered by state and local officials.
Democrats say they oppose the legislation because its restrictions aim at a problem that does not exist. They also say it could disenfranchise millions of Americans including women, minorities and low-income Americans who lack ready access to passports, birth certificates and other ID needed to prove citizenship.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer denounced the SAVE America Act on the Senate floor Tuesday as "a pernicious, radical bill" and said his party would never allow it to pass.
The legislation, which narrowly passed the House last month, could also be used by Trump and the Republicans to bolster claims that any closely fought losses in the November midterms were the result of voter fraud.
"It seamlessly introduces an excuse for losing the midterms. It is also a possible rationalization for intervening in some way," said Walter Olson, a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute.
Trump and his allies in Congress are already casting Democratic opposition to the bill as evidence of would-be voter fraud, saying Democrats want non-citizens to vote for them in November.
The Republican Party is facing a midterm campaign season that historically punishes the party of the sitting president, posing a challenge to Republican hopes of retaining their slim majority in the House of Representatives as Democrats seize on voter unhappiness over the economy and concerns about an expanding war with Iran that has sent oil prices over $100 a barrel.
Analysts say Democrats have strong odds of taking control of the House, while Republican infighting in Texas has raised the possibility that Trump's party could see its Senate majority reduced, though few expect Democrats to win outright control in that chamber.
Chris Williams, an expert on U.S. voting at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, said the SAVE America Act appears to be geared toward a segment of the U.S. electorate known as anti-system voters, who respond to claims of institutional fraud and helped Trump to capture the White House in 2016 and 2024.
The bloc makes up a sizable portion of American voters. Just ahead of the 2024 election, Reuters/Ipsos polling data showed that 44% of U.S. adults were concerned about "large numbers of non-citizens voting," including 82% of Republicans, 44% of independents and 15% of Democrats.
In the event of Republican losses, the Cato Institute's Olson said Trump could try to intervene in the chain of custody for ballots before state officials certify results. The failed legislation, he said, could provide a narrative that intervention against Democratic wins was necessary "because they wouldn't address fraud."
While lawmakers debate the SAVE America Act, Trump's Justice Department is suing 29 U.S. states including Republican-led Utah and Oklahoma over their failure to turn over voter registration lists. Attorney General Pam Bondi said the rolls were needed to ensure election integrity.
Trump has also said he would seek to impose voter ID requirements with or without Congress through an executive order.
"Fundamentally, these are the American people's elections. They're not Donald Trump's. They're not the Republican Party's. They're not the Democratic Party's," said Representative Joe Morelle, top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, which oversees elections.
"When the American people recognize the president is trying to shut down or stop the work of election officials, I think there's going to be an enormous outcry."
(Reporting by David Morgan; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Edmund Klamann)
