Sept 16 (Reuters) - Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado faces a growing dilemma over when to return home from abroad to rally support amid reticence from the Trump administration about her homecoming, four opposition sources and two political analysts said.
Machado left the country late last year to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, after largely living in hiding since a contested 2024 election. She has repeatedly promised to return, including after the U.S. ouster of President Nicolas
Maduro in January and twin earthquakes in June. But U.S. officials have privately asked her to delay her return after the quakes.
The question of Machado's return could reshape the political landscape in Venezuela, where U.S.-backed talks aimed at remaking the political system ahead of elections do not include her movement. Though she commands the highest approval rating among political figures connected to Venezuela, her support slipped last month.
Four opposition sources said Machado will return, but no date has been set. One added that the leader, currently in Panama, plans to travel to the United States beforehand, although no itinerary has been established.
"She is going to return. She'll go to the United States, but not to ask for permission," said one source close to Machado, adding Machado's focus upon her return would be to push for fair elections.
Machado sought to cultivate U.S. President Donald Trump as an ally well before Maduro's removal. But since the ouster, Trump has repeatedly expressed support for interim President Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro's former deputy, and hailed oil deals by the U.S. government and major energy companies.
TOO SOON FOR ELECTIONS: TRUMP
Trump said this month it is too soon to consider democratic elections.
Machado's longtime associate, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said in a September interview that while she had every right to return, she was playing an important role organizing the Venezuelan diaspora.
The U.S. worries Machado could disrupt its transition plans if she were to return and rally supporters to push for Maduro-era officials to leave power, said one political analyst, who asked not to be named. Asked about the timing of Machado's return, a State Department spokesperson declined to discuss private conversations.
U.S.-backed talks between a faction of the opposition and the interim government, aimed at remaking the country's political system ahead of eventual elections, are set to resume this week.
Though another source close to Machado said she had proposed leading negotiations herself, the U.S. instead backed the leader of the 2015 legislature, which it recognizes as democratically elected, and the talks so far do not include Machado's political movement.
Machado did not respond to a request for comment about her possible return, her relationship with the U.S. or the negotiations.
Venezuela's information ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
MACHADO'S POPULARITY SLIPS
Machado commanded huge crowds while campaigning in 2024, as she traveled around the country calling for a return to democracy.
The opposition coalition she led, which posted most ballot-box-level vote tallies online, says it won 67% of the presidential vote. Though international observers questioned the official results, which showed a win for Maduro, the government never published detailed tallies and the country's top court backed Maduro.
Machado has the highest approval rating among 15 political figures connected to Venezuela — including Trump and Rodriguez — in the monthly Latam Pulse survey by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg, but her support dipped in August to 53% approval from a high of 72% in July.
"The positive boost Maria Corina received after the earthquake has faded amid growing uncertainty. The changes she promised, at least in the public imagination, seem increasingly out of reach," AtlasIntel CEO Andrei Roman said on X. "Even if it is not her fault, the current situation is affecting her credibility and her ability to build the future most Venezuelans envisioned after Maduro's removal."
Machado will pay a political price for saying she would return to Venezuela after the earthquakes, then not doing so, said one opposition figure who is not part of Machado's faction, adding that her relationship with Washington is uncomfortable.
"It's not an easy situation."
The quakes killed at least 6,500 people and thousands more are missing.
Despite Maduro's ouster and Trump's oil deals, Venezuelans still suffer patchy public services and poor healthcare, said Maracaibo metal worker and local opposition organizer Gabriel Hernandez, 54, as he waited for a bus.
People would be ready to take to the streets to back Machado, he said.
"We're all waiting for Maria Corina to return. We need the person we have placed our trust in to take the reins in this highly uncertain situation, and that can only happen with her presence here and then elections," Hernandez said. "Without a doubt, we would take to the streets with her and ensure that she becomes the candidate, the winner and the president of this country."
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Rod Nickel)
