By Ammu Kannampilly
NAIROBI (Reuters) -Madagascar's President Andry Rajoelina led rallies championing reform when he came to power in a 2009 coup. Now, the former DJ and media mogul risks being toppled by student protesters frustrated by endemic corruption and a comatose economy.
Although largely youth-led, the demonstrations have given voice to years of pent-up anger across generations of Malagasy citizens, analysts say, with the protesters initially focusing on electricity and water shortages before
calling for an overhaul of the government in the African island nation.
Since demonstrations started last month, Rajoelina has fired his cabinet and emphasised his openness to dialogue with the protesters.
But the leaderless rallies have continued, with many of those marching finding inspiration in youth-led movements in Nepal and Kenya that forced governments to withdraw taxes or leave office.
A presidency spokesperson told Reuters the government had repeatedly called for dialogue with the protesters.
"Unfortunately, despite our efforts, no clear or structured leadership has emerged to engage in constructive talks."
Rajoelina was just 34 when he took office in a military-backed coup, deposing his predecessor Marc Ravalomanana.
Nicknamed "TGV" after the fast French train for his rapid-fire rhetoric and confidence, Rajoelina was elected mayor of the capital city of Antanarivo in 2007 and consistently clashed with the presidency, branding it a dictatorship when it shut down his TV channel in 2008.
When he became president in March 2009, he vowed to improve standards of living for the Malagasy, whose GDP per capita plunged by 45% between 1960 - the year it won independence from France - and 2020, according to the World Bank.
He stepped down in 2014 as leader of a transitional authority but then became president again after winning a 2018 election.
CORROSION OF TRUST
As the island reeled from COVID-19 shocks, Rajoelina - long known for his tendency to make grand claims - touted a herbal tonic, saying it would cure the disease within days, without any clinical evidence.
A presidency spokesperson told Reuters that the herbal remedy had "saved many lives" across Africa during the pandemic. They did not share any figures.
In 2022, he told a gathering of international investors that the government was prepared to offer tax exemptions to anyone willing to import giraffes, zebras and elephants from sub-Saharan Africa to the Indian Ocean island to boost tourism.
A presidency spokesperson told Reuters Rajoelina had raised the idea because of the popularity of the animated franchise "Madagascar". The project was never implemented.
Meanwhile, ordinary citizens struggled to eke out a living, beset by constant power cuts and water shortages.
"These protests were triggered by visceral grievances that go to the heart of daily life," Ketakandriana Rafitoson, the global vice-chair of Transparency International, told Reuters.
"People don't have refrigeration for medication, don't have water for basic hygiene, and then there's massive corruption...that has corroded public trust," said Rafitoson, who is also Malagasy.
Last year, a London court convicted Rajoelina's former chief of staff of offering to help precious stone miner Gemfields win lucrative mining rights in exchange for bribes amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The country fell from 118 to 140 in Transparency International's corruption index between 2012 and 2024.
A presidency spokesperson said the government was taking measures against graft, including through "anti-corruption courts, stronger financial controls, open data reforms, and digitalization of services."
Rajoelina's re-election in 2023 was preceded by weeks of protests related to opposition accusations of unfair voting conditions and claims he should be barred from running because he acquired French citizenship in 2014.
Rajoelina responded that the constitution does not require the head of state to exclusively hold Malagasy nationality.
Ten out of 13 candidates boycotted the poll and turn-out was less than 50%. The United States said the electoral process had "raised some serious concerns that must be addressed".
The country's top court dismissed several legal challenges and upheld Rajoelina's victory while the army warned against attempts to destabilize the country.
COUP RUMOURS
Madagascar has a history of coups and the army's response to the ongoing protests is being closely watched.
"There are rumours of a potential military coup against Rajoelina but that would be very dangerous for the country and could bring international sanctions," said Rafitoson.
Rajoelina last week warned, without citing evidence, that some politicians had considered staging a coup while he was abroad last month.
A presidency spokesperson told Reuters the movement was being "exploited by political actors who are seeking to destabilize the country," citing opposition figures' support for the protests.
The so-called Gen-Z movement has demanded Rajoelina's resignation and the dissolution of the election commission, the senate, and the top court. But the leaderless grouping has not shared any proposals for the future.
"If Gen-Z seize this opportunity and propose someone from their camp, they could...prevent a coup," said Rafitoson.
(Reporting and writing by Ammu Kannampilly: Editing by Sharon Singleton)
