By David Ljunggren
Oct 5 (Reuters) - The predominantly French-speaking Canadian province of Quebec goes to the polls on Monday and while a separatist party looks set to win, the campaign's focus has been more on US President Donald Trump than on independence.
Polls show the center-right Coalition Avenir Quebec will be defeated after eight years in power in favor of the Parti Quebecois, which says the province of 9 million people can better preserve its French culture and language by breaking away from
Canada.
But Quebec has been hit disproportionately hard by Trump's tariffs targeting key export sectors such as aluminum, steel and manufacturing. So powerful is their impact that the PQ, which promised to hold a referendum on independence in its first term, now says it will refrain until the president is out of office and Quebecers can reflect more calmly on their future.
The PQ's announcement suggests a tacit recognition that Quebec is likely to cope better with Trump while remaining in Canada.
Polls show only 30% of Quebecers back separation, compared with a peak of nearly 50% during a 1995 independence referendum. Analysts say a vote for the PQ would be more about disappointment with the CAQ than an endorsement of independence.
From the start of the campaign, Premier Christine Frechette also made clear the vote was about Trump and the damage from his tariffs.
"He's the real adversary, he's the one who truly threatens Quebec ... we have to fight against him," she said, portraying her party as best able to cope.
A PQ win would largely reflect fatigue with the government — 77% of voters told polling firm Leger they wanted a change — as well as unhappiness over high prices, a strained healthcare system and concerns over the damage done by tariffs.
It could pose challenges for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who stresses the need for national unity to handle Trump. The oil-rich province of Alberta will hold a non-binding vote in October on whether its residents want independence.
But PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has already ruled out bilateral talks with Washington to gain tariff relief for Quebec firms.
"Donald Trump is extremely unpopular in Quebec — he is very toxic. So saying that you will try to strike a deal with him would make the PQ look very bad," said political science professor Daniel Beland, director of the Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University in Montreal.
A Leger poll for TVA and Journal de Montreal released on October 3 showed the PQ at 29% public support, which could just be enough for a majority in the 127-seat provincial legislature given major vote-splitting among other parties. The Liberals were on 25%, the Conservatives on 20% and the CAQ on 14%.
Leger president Jean-Marc Leger said if the PQ promised not to poll Quebecers on independence, its support would jump.
"Voters want this government, but without the referendum," he said.
Growing frustration over the dominance of English helped fuel the rise of the PQ, which has won five provincial elections since 1976.
Quebec's future featured only briefly in a leaders' debate on September 23, when Plamondon said he would call another independence vote even if polls showed it had no chance of success.
"Do not be afraid of your democracy, don't be afraid to vote, don't be afraid to think about our future," he said.
Voting takes place from 9:30 a.m. Eastern time (1330 GMT) to 8 p.m. The provisional result should be clear by midnight.
(Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Nia Williams)
