By Nolan D. McCaskill and Joseph Ax
Aug 5 (Reuters) - Abdul El-Sayed's victory in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary sets up a high-profile test this fall of whether an unabashedly progressive candidate can prevail in a politically divided swing state — with control of the Senate potentially at stake.
El-Sayed, a 41-year-old doctor whose campaign focused on healthcare, the economy and an end to unconditional military aid to Israel, is the first progressive to win a statewide primary in a state that
President Donald Trump carried in 2024. He will face Republican former congressman Mike Rogers in November's midterm elections.
Democrats, who had been deeply divided between El-Sayed and his more moderate opponent, U.S. Representative Haley Stevens, rushed on Wednesday to portray the entire party as behind him. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who had endorsed Stevens, said Democrats would unify to defeat Rogers; Stevens herself vowed to help El-Sayed win.
"Whatever differences that we might have had in the primary, they pale in comparison to what unifies us," El-Sayed said on Wednesday.
While Democrats have racked up a series of electoral victories since Trump returned to office last year, the Michigan contest again highlighted a central debate that has riven the party: whether to back progressive insurgents who have harnessed the left wing's anti-establishment anger or moderate candidates who can appeal to swing voters.
REPUBLICANS LINE UP ATTACKS
Republicans wasted little time in attacking El-Sayed as too extreme for Michigan. Digital advertising from the party's Senate campaign arm and an allied super PAC described El-Sayed as "dangerous" and "the most radical Senate candidate in America."
Trump said on social media that El-Sayed's victory was "great news" for the Republican Party. In a statement, Rogers wrote, "The choice this November is simple: common sense or complete insanity."
Stevens supporters had argued for months that she was better positioned to win the general election in a state that Trump has won twice in the last three presidential elections.
El-Sayed's backers, meanwhile, said his grassroots campaign had energized liberal voters as well as young people who are often disillusioned about politics. The primary election drew the highest turnout for any Democratic contest in state history, according to the state party chair.
His victory served as a capstone for the party's left wing, which has notched several electoral wins against establishment-backed candidates in more deeply Democratic areas. Some of those winners are democratic socialists, a label that Trump has inaccurately equated with communists.
SENATE CONTROL AT STAKE
The Michigan race is essentially a must-win for Democrats, who are facing an uphill battle to win a Senate majority in November. The party must hang onto seats in battlegrounds Michigan and Georgia while also flipping four Republican-held seats, including at least two in states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024.
El-Sayed's progressive positions could make him an easier target for Republicans at a time when Democrats want voters' attention squarely on Trump's low approval ratings and the high cost of living, said Nathan Gonzales, an analyst at Inside Elections. But his outsider message also tapped into rising frustration among voters.
"I think we have underestimated the mood of the electorate right now and how willing they are to support candidates who are not Republicans and not from Washington," he added. "It's easy to see why the Democratic establishment saw an easier path with Stevens. She's less of a wild card. But El-Sayed was more in line with the mood of the Democratic primary electorate."
Still, El-Sayed has work to do to mend fences after narrowly winning a bruising, divisive campaign in which he did not reach 50% of the vote.
REACHING OUT TO BLACK, JEWISH VOTERS
Will Marshall, president of the centrist Progressive Policy Institute think tank, said Michigan Democrats have found success in recent statewide elections by building broad coalitions with persuadable voters, not just energizing young activists.
Marshall said the election results show Stevens performed better in counties with large working-class and Black populations, while El-Sayed prevailed among white college-educated voters.
"It’s possible that Trump’s cratering popularity and the unraveling of his 2024 coalition will generate a Blue Wave in November big enough to propel even left-wing candidates with intense but narrow support into office,” he said in a statement. “But the socialist surge is more likely to prove a burden than a benefit to Democrats trying to win working-class voters in competitive races."
The race also served as a battleground between progressives and moderates over support for Israel, an issue that has played out in Democratic primaries nationwide this year.
Stevens benefited from tens of millions of dollars in spending by a pro-Israel super PAC. But analysts said one significant factor in El-Sayed's favor was that Michigan is home to some of the country's largest Arab American communities, where hostility to Israel's war in Gaza runs deep. El-Sayed would be the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate if he prevails in November.
During the primary campaign, El-Sayed pointed to the money backing Stevens' campaign to bolster his grassroots appeal, arguing that he represented the working class against corporate interests.
On Wednesday, El-Sayed specifically reached out to Jewish voters, calling them his "sisters and brothers" and promising that he was committed to their safety.
(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; Additional reporting by Tim Reid; Writing by Joseph Ax; Editing by Michael Learmonth, Howard Goller, Scott Malone and Deepa Babington)
