By Ankur Banerjee, Rae Wee and Gayatri Suroyo
SINGAPORE, July 27 (Reuters) - Just as a fragile calm was returning to Indonesian markets, the abrupt resignation of the central bank chief has reignited investor anxiety over policy credibility and political influence in managing Southeast Asia's biggest economy.
Perry Warjiyo stepped down on Monday as Bank Indonesia (BI)governor after eight years for personal reasons, with Destry Damayanti, a senior deputy governor, appointed as interim governor, bringing
some level of continuity, for now.
At stake is whether Indonesia's policy path may bend to political pressure even as the rupiah hovers near record lows and investor confidence over Indonesia's fiscal health under President Prabowo Subianto continues to erode.
"The bigger question is central bank independence, since a fixed term is meant to insulate the governor and an early exit tests that," said Rangga Cipta, chief economist at Mandiri Securities. He said a midterm resignation is likely to be read as negative by investors, as it may point to policy uncertainty.
"We think the choice of successor will matter more for Indonesian monetary policy than the departure itself."
INDONESIA LOSES ANOTHER ECONOMIC STALWART
With Warjiyo's departure, Indonesia has lost two of its most trusted policy linchpins in less than a year.
Sri Mulyani Indrawati, widely recognised globally as an anchor of Indonesia's fiscal discipline and economic reform, was ousted as finance minister in September, a move that rocked investor sentiment; now Warjiyo's surprise exit only compounds those worries.
The appointment of a new governor would involve both the president and parliament, with Prabowo submitting his nomination to parliament for a "fit and proper test" before an approval. Prabowo has not yet proposed any name.
"Any perception among investors that BI monetary policy is less independent and less responsible would put pressure on the rupiah and Indonesian assets," said Daniel Tan, portfolio manager at Grasshopper Asset Management.
Indonesia's cabinet secretary urged market participants to remain calm during BI's leadership transition, adding that the change would not disrupt monetary policy or economic stability. Reuters has reached out to Prabowo's spokesperson for comment.
BI's independence came under scrutiny after Prabowo's nephew Thomas Djiwandono was appointed as deputy governor at BI in January, while parliament passed sweeping legislation in June that doubled down on its role to support growth.
The rupiah slid 0.3% to 17,990 per dollar following Monday's announcement, not far from the record low of 18,190 struck in June. The rupiah has declined more than 7% in 2026, making it the worst performing Asian currency this year, despite the central bank raising rates by 100 basis points in recent months.
FRAGILE CALM AFTER BRUTAL FIRST HALF OF 2026
Indonesian assets got a boost from S&P earlier in July after the global rating agency affirmed its rating on the country with a stable outlook, in contrast to Moody's and Fitch, both of which cut their outlooks to negative earlier this year.
George Xu, a director in Fitch Ratings' Sovereigns team, said the firm was keeping track of these developments.
"We see risks of further external pressures stemming from fragile investor sentiment amid uncertainty over the future trajectory of monetary policy and perceptions of central bank independence," Xu said.
The spread on five-year Indonesian credit default swaps (CDS), which measures the risk of a bond issuer not paying its creditors, hit 94 bps on Monday based on S&P Global Market Intelligence data, up from 70.57 at the end of August before Sri Mulyani was removed in a cabinet reshuffle.
"We had a lot of negative news since early this year, but at least recently there had been some stabilisation," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ. "This latest development has once again introduced uncertainty for investors."
Markets will be scrutinising who Prabowo nominates as the next BI governor, to assess whether the central bank retains its independence or tilts toward supporting the president's stated aim of achieving 8% growth by 2029.
"The transition now underway underscores the 'personnel is policy' approach to the transformation of Indonesia's macroeconomic policy institutions," said Aninda Mitra, head of Asia macro and investment strategy at BNY Investments.
"Until these broader monetary uncertainties are addressed, or unless fiscal announcements surprise materially to the upside, the risk premia on IDR will likely remain elevated and any transitional leadership could face more stark tradeoffs between managing growth and rupiah stability."
(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee and Rae Wee in Singapore, Gayathri Suroyo in Jakarta, Writing by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
