By Gabriel Stargardter and Elizabeth Pineau
PARIS (Reuters) -After falling short of a majority in last year's snap legislative vote, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said her party's victory had merely been delayed.
Fifteen months later, with the fallout of that vote having plunged France into a chronic crisis, Le Pen and her National Rally (RN) sense their moment is nearing as Macron tests the limits of his power to avoid further elections.
The RN's continued ostracisation from mainstream politics
has positioned it as a leading beneficiary of the rumbling malaise. By watching the crisis unfold from the sidelines, it has been able to pick up disgruntled voters.
FAR RIGHT AHEAD IN THE POLLS
A Wednesday poll by OpinionWay for the right-wing CNEWS channel found that around 35% of French people planned to vote for the RN in the first round of a possible legislative vote, 10 points ahead of a broad leftist alliance if it were to regroup.
While that is hardly an electoral tsunami - the RN was polling just slightly lower before the 2024 vote - the party believes it can win, or come close to, a majority in a legislative vote should Macron call one.
It believes the electoral pacts between rival parties that stopped it from winning a majority in 2024 will no longer hold after months of partisan squabbling. A leftist alliance between the Socialists and hard-left "France Unbowed" has collapsed since the 2024 vote, while the "common platform" alliance between centrists and conservatives is on life support.
Although Macron will name a new prime minister this week, his next government's survival is far from guaranteed. Experts say a dissolution of parliament in the coming weeks - something Le Pen has repeatedly called for - cannot be discounted.
Le Pen has been clear that if her party falls far short of a majority, it will not seek the prime minister's office. If it got close, however, it would seek to lure rival lawmakers, most likely from the conservative Republicans party.
The RN has been fine-tuning its candidate list for months, seeking to avoid the antisemitic, Islamophobic and racist candidates who derailed its election hopes last year.
"The goal is to secure a majority, convince the French, and show that our policies will produce rapid results, that an antidote is possible," RN lawmaker Julien Odoul told Reuters.
FROM TABOO PARTY TO GOVERNMENT-IN-WAITING?
Once a byword for racism and antisemitism, the RN has been on a steady upward march since Le Pen sought to professionalise the party in 2017, and as anti-immigrant sentiment has become more mainstream. Although it remains toxic for many French, the party views itself as a government-in-waiting.
Le Pen's role in a potential future RN government is unclear. Her presidential hopes hang by a thread after she received a five-year political ban following an embezzlement conviction in March. Her appeal will be held in January, with a verdict expected before the summer.
If Macron dissolves parliament, she would almost certainly not be able to run again due to her political ban. While losing her parliamentary seat would be an inconvenience, it is unlikely to eclipse her political star, and she will still remain one of the loudest voices in French politics.
BARDELLA COULD OVERCOME TOXIC LEGACY
Should Le Pen's ban be upheld, and she cannot run for the presidency in 2027, she has said her political protege, 30-year-old party president Jordan Bardella, will run instead.
That may be no bad thing for the RN. The Le Pen family name reminds many in France of her father, who founded the party and was convicted of inciting racial hatred and condoning war crimes. He died earlier this year, aged 96.
His toxic legacy has contributed to the RN's failure to get over the line in France's two-round presidential votes, having lost the last two elections in run-offs.
According to a Toluna poll published on Wednesday, Bardella was seen winning 35% of votes in the first-round of a potential presidential election, while Le Pen was on 34%. Bardella was up five points on a previous May poll, with Le Pen up three points.
The sharp-suited Bardella, son of an Italian immigrant family who grew up in the rough outskirts of Paris, has polished the RN's reputation. He has also attracted younger, blue-collar voters hit by inflation and job insecurity to a party once known for an older, middle-class and arch-conservative clientele.
Should he become prime minister, he this week pledged to immediately prohibit regularizations of illegal immigrants, toughen borders and ramp up prison terms.
(Reporting by Gabriel Stargardter and Elizabeth Pineau; Editing by Richard Lough and Alison Williams)
