By Renee Hickman and Dawn Kopecki
Sept 25 (Reuters) - With midterm elections just over a month away, Republican heavyweights have been jetting across the country to campaign and outside groups have been pouring money into races in what is normally the party’s safest territory -- Farm Belt states like Iowa and Kansas.
The influx of money and attention shows just how vulnerable Republicans are as high costs, especially for gasoline and diesel, have disappointed the party’s usual supporters, according
to campaign strategists and political scientists. Republican voters have increasingly soured on President Donald Trump's handling of the economy, part of why his approval rating fell to 32% in a September 21 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest of his political career.
"The spending reflects just how competitive these races are,” said Republican strategist Brad Dayspring of Purple Strategies in Alexandria, Virginia. "Republicans are fighting for their political future and they're using every arrow in the quiver to make sure their message breaks through."
Vice President JD Vance recently campaigned in Iowa on behalf of US Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, and earlier in the year for Republican Representative Zach Nunn.
Vance also made a stop in Kansas, where a Democrat has not been elected senator since the Great Depression, to rally support for Republican Senator Roger “Doc” Marshall.
Those two states, as well as Nebraska, where incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts is facing independent Dan Osborn, look competitive as the general election nears.
Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana also recently traveled to all three to campaign for Republicans.
"If you told me six months ago I was going to be having to spend my time in those three states, I wouldn’t have believed you,” Kennedy said. “Those oughta be fat guy layups for us.”
FARM BELT FEELS THE EFFECTS
For the first time, Republicans who disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living outnumber those who approve 51% to 44%, according to the September 21 poll.
The war with Iran has caused diesel fuel prices to surge to more than $6.50 a gallon, a record. Diesel is used to power vehicles like pickup trucks and farm equipment, making the increase particularly painful in states like Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska, where agriculture is a dominant industry.
In Iowa, Hinson is facing an increasingly tough battle with Democrat Josh Turek, a state representative from Council Bluffs, on the western edge of the state.
A Marist poll on September 22 showed her running behind Turek, with 42% of respondents supporting Hinson to Turek's 50%.
A sitting member of the US House of Representatives, Hinson previously voted six times against House measures seeking to curb Trump's authority to continue the Iran war. Following Vance's September 18 visit, Hinson reversed course, calling for a swift end to the war.
Hinson did not attend the rally headlined by Vance. Speaking at the event, he called her an "amazing public servant" and vowed to get her elected even though, "I know she couldn't be here today."
Republican-aligned political action committees have poured more than $30.3 million into the campaign, with more than $11.7 million coming since Labor Day. Democrats have spent $24.3 million to boost Turek, with about $7.6 million coming since Labor Day, according to federal election filings, which do not include nonprofit groups that are not required to disclose their spending.
KANSAS LOOKING COMPETITIVE
Vance made the trip to Kansas as Marshall, a former obstetrician who was elected in 2020, faced reports that he has sued more than 700 patients for unpaid medical debts. A Marshall spokesperson told the New York Times in response to their reporting that he treated patients regardless of whether they could pay.
Recent polling from Emerson College/Nexstar Media put Marshall's Democratic challenger, church pastor Adam Hamilton, within the margin of error when pitted against Marshall. The poll showed 45% of voters supporting Hamilton and 43% supporting the Republican senator.
If Hamilton won, he would be the first Democratic senator elected from Kansas in 94 years.
Outside Democratic groups started targeting the race at the end of August, pouring in about $2.3 million, according to Federal Election Commission data, indicating they see the potential for Hamilton to unseat the incumbent Marshall. Republican-leaning groups have put about $1.6 million into the race, but just $27,500 since Labor Day.
Visits by high-profile figures like Vance are often used to generate more turnout among loyal voters in midterm elections, whose outcome usually depends on getting the party's staunchest supporters to the polls.
Those visits can backfire, said Alexandra Middlewood, professor of political science at Wichita State University. Kansas has large numbers of independent voters less likely to be swayed by the backing of big names, she said.
In a year when Republicans and Trump are increasingly unpopular, visits like Vance's could reinforce negative sentiments.
Ron Bonjean, a partner at bipartisan public affairs firm Rokk Solutions, said of Vance's visit to Iowa: "If the vice president is going into a Republican stronghold this late into a campaign, it shows that they want to shore up support to ensure there aren’t problems on election day."
(Reporting by Renee Hickman and Dawn Kopecki. Editing by Emily Schmall, Michael Learmonth and David Gaffen)
