By Tom Polansek
CHICAGO, March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers plan to plant less corn and more soybeans in 2026 than last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said, as the Iran war drives up fertilizer and fuel prices in the latest blow to the struggling agricultural sector.
The agency published on Tuesday its first survey-based crop acreage estimate of the year in a prospective plantings report, along with quarterly U.S. grain stocks data.
Analysts cautioned that plantings estimates, gleaned from
farmer surveys conducted in the first half of March, could not fully account for disruptions and price impacts caused by the war. As a result, the agency may further reduce its estimate for corn acreage, they said.
USDA, which has struggled for years to get farmers to respond to surveys, faced criticism over the reliability of its data this year after making unprecedented increases to corn acreage estimates for the 2025 crop. The response rate to its March agricultural survey was 37.6%, down from 44.3% last year and the lowest for that survey, the agency's National Agricultural Statistics Service said on X.
"Because of what's happening in the fertilizer market, and the timing of when the survey went out, this is probably the highest number in planted acreage we'll see in corn this year," said Jake Hanley, managing director and senior portfolio specialist at Teucrium Trading.
Corn and wheat require more costly fertilizer, making them less attractive for growers to plant than soybeans with the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran cutting off critical nitrogen supplies from the Gulf to the world's farmers.
Spiking fertilizer costs are the latest hurdle for farmers grappling with weak grain prices, rising bills for other inputs and uncertainty over China's demand for U.S. crops. A trade war launched by the Trump administration last year dramatically disrupted U.S. soybean export sales to China, the world's largest importer.
HURDLES FOR FARMERS
Farmers intend to plant 95.338 million acres of corn this year, down from 98.788 million acres in 2025, and 84.7 million acres of soybeans, up from 81.215 million acres last year, USDA said.
Analysts expected disruptions from the Iran conflict to curb corn acreage even further. They pegged corn plantings at 94.371 million acres in a Reuters poll and soybean plantings at 85.549 million acres.
USDA's lower-than-expected estimate for soy acres rallied soybean futures.
For wheat, farmers planted 43.775 million acres for harvest this year, which was down from 45.328 million acres last year and the lowest since records began in 1919, USDA data showed. Analysts expected 44.786 million acres.
Most Midwest farmers grow corn and soybeans, alternating what is planted on each field every year to preserve soil health. Some acres can break from the traditional rotation if growers see an opportunity to turn a better profit or lose less money.
U.S. net farm income is forecast to turn lower this year despite near-record government aid payments, marking the fourth straight year of tight margins, high production costs and low commodity prices.
GRAIN STOCKS RISE
Farm groups have urged Congress to approve additional aid for crop growers as the repercussions of the Iran war rattle the broader economy. President Donald Trump's administration is already distributing $12 billion to farmers after his trade dispute with China hurt U.S. soybean sales.
U.S. stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat as of March 1 were up from a year ago, USDA said, reflecting ample supplies after bumper harvests and trade disruptions last year.
U.S. corn stocks reached 9.024 billion bushels as of March 1, compared to 8.147 billion bushels a year earlier and analysts' expectations of 9.104 billion bushels.
Plentiful inventories weigh on prices for crop farmers and ease costs for livestock producers and biofuel manufacturers.
"There's plenty of corn right now to be had," Hanley said. "But all the elements right now are building that the risk is to the upside here."
(Reporting by Tom Polansek in Chicago, Additional reporting by PJ Huffstutter and Heather Schlitz in Chicago, Editing by Deepa Babington and Matthew Lewis)
