By Nathan Layne
LIVONIA, Michigan, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The pitch was simple: Republican US Senate candidate Mike Rogers is a common-sense conservative, while Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed is a big-government socialist aligned with the party's left wing.
But when a canvasser backing Rogers delivered that message to Nick Delise, a three-time Donald Trump voter in suburban Detroit, he encountered some skepticism. Though Delise said he would probably vote for Rogers, he rejected the notion that Democrats
were controlled by the far left, saying the party was focused on practical solutions to voters' problems.
The exchange offered a first-hand look at a strategy Republicans are deploying in Michigan and other battleground states: to portray Democrats as ideological extremists who have moved too far to the left, while turning out less-engaged supporters needed to keep their congressional majorities in November.
Reuters accompanied door-knockers with Americans for Prosperity Action, the super PAC arm of the conservative network backed by billionaire Charles Koch, in the city of Livonia last week as they sought to mobilize voters for Rogers in the tightly contested race.
The conversations highlighted both the appeal and limits of Republican messaging. With many Americans unhappy with President Donald Trump's handling of the economy and the war in Iran, Republicans have been struggling to find messages that will get voters struggling with the high cost of living to the polls on Election Day.
Delise, 32, had appeared an ideal audience for the pitch. An American flag hung from the porch of his modest, single-story home, two pickup trucks sat in the driveway and a pro-police "Thin Blue Line" banner was displayed in the garage.
He acknowledged he knew little about the candidates and typically skips midterm elections, while attributing his conservative leanings to the influence of relatives in law enforcement. He complained about the cost of fueling his trucks.
"I'm not hardcore like I have to vote Republican," Delise told Reuters in a follow-up interview, adding that he had not ruled out backing a Democrat if he decides to vote. "I'd be open. I'm not saying there's not a chance."
To be sure, many people canvassers encountered were already in Rogers' camp, making the conversations less about persuasion than turnout. One Trump supporter in her 50s said she and two family members had already committed to Rogers, while a middle-aged man chatting in a neighbor's yard said he would back Rogers to thwart what he described as a socialist turn by Democrats.
Trump and his allies have sought to capitalize on recent primary victories by some left-leaning Democrats like El-Sayed to argue that the party is veering toward socialism and poses a threat to the country, a claim Democratic leaders dismiss as false and fearmongering. At the same time, Trump has called on his party to put him at the center of their election efforts to excite his base, despite his growing unpopularity.
A Republican couple in their 80s illustrated a potential weakness in the Trump-centric turnout strategy. While the wife said she would vote for Rogers, her husband said dissatisfaction with the president had left him unsure whether he could back the Republican Senate nominee. A canvasser sought to redirect the conversation to policy differences and away from Trump.
"People aren't super happy with the situation in the world right now," Tim Golding, senior adviser to AFP Action in Michigan, said in an interview. "But we try to pivot off that conversation and go back to the policies and the agenda that our candidates have, and not have a conversation about Trump as best we can."
ENTHUSIASM GAP
With Trump posting weak approval ratings and not on the ballot, Republicans must mobilize supporters who might otherwise skip the midterms, when turnout typically falls by more than 10 percentage points from presidential-election levels. That historic trend is raising the stakes for the Republicans' national door-knocking and other get-out-the-vote efforts this election.
Democrats appear more energized, with 42% of self-described Democrats saying they are "very enthusiastic" about voting, compared with 28% of Republican voters, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.
In Michigan, concerns about an enthusiasm gap recently spilled into public view when a Republican working with the Rogers campaign complained about a lack of energy among volunteers for door-knocking and other activities.
"The vibes on the ground are the worst I've seen in my life," Jackson Karki, a college student who had been helping the campaign organize several northern counties, posted to X last week. "No one wants to promote candidates, no one wants to knock doors, no one wants to do shit."
Other Republicans dispute that characterization. In Oakland County, one of Michigan's most important battlegrounds and home to more than 1 million registered voters, Republican Party Chair Vance Patrick said volunteer enthusiasm remains strong.
In an interview, he said Trump was set to visit the state twice before the election on November 3, which he predicted would further encourage volunteers and boost turnout. County party organizations like Patrick's have grown more important in Michigan as the state Republican Party's operations have weakened in recent years.
Patrick said the county's top targets include roughly 20,000 Jewish voters, a key constituency for Rogers given El-Sayed's opposition to military aid for Israel and his characterization of Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide. It is also chasing 38,000 so-called sleeping giants - infrequent voters who they believe would back Rogers if persuaded to cast a ballot.
MICHIGAN A CASE STUDY OF NATIONAL EFFORT
Including AFP and other outside groups, Rogers' campaign plans to knock on six million to eight million doors by Election Day, according to a person familiar with the matter, roughly double the 2024 total, when he lost the Senate race by 19,000 votes.
The effort reflects the scale of the Republican turnout strategy nationally, where campaigns and allied groups are investing heavily in door-knocking and other voter-targeting operations amid concerns about voter enthusiasm.
Republicans hold a $637 million cash lead nationally over Democrats across super PACs and party committees, dwarfing Democrats' edge in candidate fundraising and potentially helping fund a more expansive turnout operation, said Brendan Glavin, OpenSecrets' director of insights.
Yet Democrats say money alone will not decide the race. The Michigan Democratic Party says its active volunteer ranks have grown by 267% since the primary as the party has rallied behind El-Sayed.
Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel said Democrats will knock on 1.4 million doors in the campaign's final four weeks, arguing the effort will blunt Republican attempts to shift focus away from kitchen-table issues.
They are counting on voters like one resident in his 20s who answered the door in Livonia and, when asked whom he planned to vote for, replied simply, "Not Mike Rogers," before closing it.
(Reporting by Nathan Layne in Livonia, Michigan, editing by Ross Colvin and Alistair Bell)
