By Marcela Ayres
BRASILIA, June 18 (Reuters) - Brazil's debt yield curve reacted sharply on Thursday to a central bank decision considered dovish, as policymakers cut interest rates and left the door open for more easing despite acknowledging a more challenging inflation outlook.
While the market pared short-term yields, reflecting bets on another cut at the next meeting in August, yields rose from 2028 onwards, signaling a repricing of long-term risks.
The central bank's rate-setting committee, called
Copom, lowered rates by 25 basis points at a third straight meeting, to 14.25%, on Wednesday, while keeping a data-dependent stance for its next move.
That openness to more rate cuts came despite sharply higher inflation forecasts, stronger economic activity and additional upside risks for inflation due to stimulus measures from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva boosting credit and growth.
In a policy statement that analysts described as unusual and ambiguous, Copom justified its rate cut by arguing that the path required to bring inflation to the target over its relevant policy horizon - the fourth quarter of 2027 - would lead to below-target inflation later, suggesting that would be undesirable.
Gino Olivares, chief economist at Azimut Brasil Wealth Management, said it was too early to call the decision a definite policy shift, but suggested that the central bank would need to provide further clarification in the meeting minutes on Tuesday, or risk damaging its credibility.
"The impression is that the exercise presented was a form of contortion to keep cutting rates despite explicitly acknowledging greater concern about inflation," he said.
BTG Pactual said that the dovish policy decision was unusual and unclear, adding the central bank appeared to show discomfort with policy paths that would drive inflation below target beyond the usual monetary policy horizon.
"The message matters: if this logic is used repeatedly, it could prove quite dovish and keep the door open to further adjustments," the bank wrote in a report.
(Reporting by Marcela Ayres;Editing by Alison Williams)
