By Marek Strzelecki and Andrius Sytas
WARSAW/VILNIUS, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Russia's northern NATO neighbours are tightening security around dams, power plants and natural gas infrastructure in a sign of mounting concern that Moscow will stage a "false flag" attack on them using Ukrainian drones.
Lithuania said last week that Moscow is considering such a staged attack and Poland, Latvia and Estonia have also warned of acts of sabotage to test NATO's response at a time when U.S. commitment to the Western
military alliance is in question.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov last month said warnings of Russian clandestine attacks are "scare stories" used to justify militarization against Russia.
Poland and the three Baltic states, which all border Russia and have already found Ukrainian drones on their territory, are taking no chances.
"We are not naive, we see the information, we read between the lines and we are doing our homework," Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas told Reuters.
He, the prime minister of Latvia and four intelligence and company officials from across the region shared new details of intelligence assessments with Reuters and described measures that are being taken to protect infrastructure in response.
"We are increasing the security of our critical infrastructure, we constantly exchange information with our intelligence on what to do next," Kaunas said.
RIOT POLICE AND MILITARY TAKE UP POSITIONS
Last month, Lithuania dispatched the military to back up riot police in securing its liquefied natural gas import terminal, the oil products terminal, a key power link with Poland, and the Kruonis Pumped Storage hydro plant.
"We are clearly signaling that, if needed, we will be defending ourselves", said Kaunas.
Latvia has increased security around all critical infrastructure, including the dam on the Daugava River near Riga and the Incukalns underground gas storage facility, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs told Reuters in an interview.
"A potential hybrid threat is more likely than it was before," he said.
Russia in May accused the Baltic states of planning to let Ukrainian drones attack Russia from their territory and pledged to retaliate, prompting denials and protest along with concern that Moscow may stage such an attack to justify a response.
A Baltic intelligence official said assessments indicated Russian military and domestic intelligence agencies are planning a possible false-flag attack on infrastructure in Russia or the Baltics and Poland, with Ukrainian-made drones, to be carried out within days of approval from leaders including President Vladimir Putin.
The main concern cited in the assessments was not so much the immediate impact of such an attack as the 'political chaos' it could trigger at NATO headquarters in Brussels as its European members and the United States debate how, and whether, to respond, the official said.
Another source, an official from the region, was less definitive, saying a spate of warnings from "allied intelligence" about Russian activity had made an "overwhelming impression" on the Baltic states but attacks could take place "between today and never".
Moscow says the West, out of "Russophobia", routinely accuses it of malign acts without providing evidence. NATO and the Russian embassy in Vilnius did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
In Poland, the top oil and gas company Orlen is analyzing alternative gas import routes in case the usual ones are compromised, a person familiar with its operations said.
Orlen imports 80% of the country's gas through the Swinoujscie liquefied natural gas terminal on the Baltic Sea and an undersea pipeline from Norway that lands nearby. Gaz-System, which owns the infrastructure, is operating under "increased vigilance" there, another person with direct knowledge said.
Orlen declined to comment on the specifics of any preventive measures. A Gaz-System spokesperson said the firm is monitoring the geopolitical situation and responding appropriately.
FORGED DOCUMENTS PROMPT CONCERN OVER POLISH NUCLEAR PLAN
The state-owned developer of Poland's first nuclear power plant, Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe, said forged company documents aimed at confusing stakeholders had appeared and could be traced to somewhere "east of Poland".
The company is investigating with special services and law enforcement and monitoring for sabotage or other threats at the planned construction site, spokesman Marcin Skolimowski said.
Poland's power grid operator and an arm of the military began increasing security in July around a power link with Ukraine that helps to stabilise the war-hit country's grid, which has long been attacked by Russia.
"This is an area where heightened vigilance is required, so we are using all available resources," the grid operator's spokesperson Maciej Wapinski told Reuters.
It expects the military to eventually help secure its critical infrastructure in other eastern parts of the country.
Mysterious drones have also appeared across Europe. Last week, in Germany, officials found a drone carrying explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt called it a hybrid attack but did not assign blame. Russia has dismissed suggestions by German politicians and media that it is responsible.
Wojciech Kononczuk, director of the Polish state-funded OSW Centre for Eastern Studies, told Reuters a spate of allegations from Russia that the Baltics are working for Ukraine may be paving the way for Russian attacks there.
He said that with Russian forces bogged down in Ukraine and Ukrainian strikes on Russia's energy and other facilities hurting its economy, the aim would be to regain the upper hand.
The message to Europe, Kononczuk said, would be that if it does not accept Moscow's demands then it will spread destabilisation - a risky move based on the calculation that there would be a lack of will to respond.
(Reporting by Marek Strzelecki in Warsaw and Andrius Sytas in Vilnius; additional reporting by Lily Bayer in Brussels; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
