By Gabriela Selser and Diego Oré
MEXICO CITY, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega's appearance at a public event on Monday looking frail and confused has reignited speculation among analysts about who, especially among his family, is next in line to succeed the Sandinista leader, who turns 81 years old on Wednesday.
The question of succession will test whether the system Ortega has built over nearly two decades will survive its founder, and whether reforms aimed at cementing his and his wife's
grip on power will endure.
Analysts say leading political heirs are shaping up to be Rosario Murillo, 75, Ortega's wife and the country's co-president, or her son with Ortega, Laureano Ortega Murillo, 43.
Ortega, the longest-serving leader in the Americas, reappeared alongside Murillo at a televised event in Managua after more than two months out of public view, one of his longest breaks from the spotlight.
It was a memorial tribute to Carlos Fonseca, founder of the Sandinista National Liberation Front that toppled Anastasio Somoza in 1979, clearing the way for Ortega to take power.
As Ortega addressed cheering crowds, he appeared to speak to a bouquet of roses in his right hand, oblivious to the lapel microphone pinned to his white shirt.
"Carlos: here are the young people, those who will never forget you, those who will never betray you," he said.
Throughout the 40-minute ceremony as young Sandinistas sang, Ortega maintained a serious expression, his face pale, as he stood beside Murillo.
'SUCCESSION IS IMMINENT'
Official media published photographs showing a smiling Ortega, and portrayed the event as evidence of continuity in political leadership.
That intention may have backfired, said Oscar Vargas, a political analyst living in exile in Costa Rica.
"What it showed is that Ortega is in very poor condition. Different power circles realize that succession is imminent," he said.
Ortega did not address his two-month absence from public events, and the Nicaraguan government did not immediately respond to a request for comment about his health.
The president's health has faced public scrutiny since the 2010s, when he began disappearing from public view for extended periods.
The government has not addressed rumors of health issues and Reuters could not verify them.
WIFE OR SON
Murillo, a poet from Nicaragua's elite known for hippie-style outfits and using flowery religious language in speeches, married Ortega in 2005. Over time, she became the face of the government, with regular appearances on radio and television channels to tout the government and challenge political foes.
Her accumulation of power culminated with her co-president appointment in 2025.
Laureano Ortega Murillo, a presidential adviser and trained opera singer who is one of the couple's several children, could also be groomed as a possible second-generation successor, analysts say.
As an adviser for investment, trade and international cooperation promotion, he has increasingly eclipsed officials from the foreign ministry.
The US Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Laureano Ortega Murillo in 2019, describing him as a key facilitator of the financial corruption activities of his parents' government.
Some longtime observers believe the junior politician lacks the legitimacy to take top office, while others doubt Murillo will agree to give up the spotlight in Ortega's wake.
If the president "leaves the scene, Rosario Murillo will hold all the power. She doesn't want to compete even with one of her children," said Dora Maria Tellez, a former Sandinista guerrilla fighter and prominent critic of Ortega.
The succession questions come after Ortega has moved to consolidate power including saying Nicaragua would no longer hold elections to prevent the opposition from "seizing the government" again.
(Reporting by Gabriela Selser and Diego Ore in Mexico City, Editing by Daina Beth Solomon and Jonathan Spicer)
