By Nolan D. McCaskill
WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the US Senate, where Democrats would need to flip at least two seats in states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win a majority in November's midterm elections. But as Election Day nears, Democrats have a real chance at flipping the chamber, something that was considered a long shot at the beginning of this political cycle.
Here are the races that will determine control of the Senate:
GEORGIA
Democrats' top priority is to hold the seats they already have. That means protecting US Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia and helping progressive Abdul El-Sayed hold an open seat in Michigan. Trump won Georgia by 2 percentage points in 2024 and Michigan by 1 point.
Ossoff has been a juggernaut fundraiser, raising $98 million through June 30. He entered July with nearly $43 million on hand. His opponent, US Representative Mike Collins, has raised only $7.4 million and reported $2.1 million on hand. Campaigns are required to file their quarterly fundraising reports this week, which will show how much they've raised between July and September and how much they had on hand entering October.
Recent polls show Ossoff, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, with a double-digit lead over Collins.
Republicans have outspent Democrats $17 million to $15 million, but Ossoff's campaign funds may be too much for Collins to overcome.
MICHIGAN
The Democratic establishment didn't get its pick in Michigan. But embracing a progressive outsider is key to Democrats' strategy to flip control of the Senate. A Democratic loss in Michigan would require the party to flip five Republican-held seats to win a majority.
El-Sayed narrowly defeated the establishment favorite in moderate US Representative Haley Stevens during the primary, putting him on a collision course with former US Representative Mike Rogers in what could be the tightest race for a Democratic-held Senate seat this cycle.
Rogers released a 30-second ad last week in which he said Canada is not America's enemy, distancing himself from the president and his tariffs. "We need to end this tariff war," a narrator says. "Now!"
Former Vice President Kamala Harris has campaigned with El-Sayed, and former President Barack Obama is set to rally with him later this month. The latest batch of polls show El-Sayed leading by between 1 and 7 points.
Republicans have spent $86 million in Michigan's Senate race, more than double Democrats' $41 million.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Democrats are defending another open seat in New Hampshire, though this is a state Harris won by nearly 3 points in 2024.
Democratic US Representative Chris Pappas is running against former US Senator John Sununu, who was ousted by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. Shaheen is retiring.
Pappas has raised $15 million to Sununu's $4 million. The Democratic congressman also has a $1 million cash advantage over Sununu.
But Republicans have helped close the gap for Sununu, whose brother Chris was governor until his term ended last year and whose father — also named John — was a former governor and White House chief of staff for President George H.W. Bush. Republicans have outspent Democrats in this race, $25 million to $12 million.
Pappas has maintained a consistent polling lead of 5 to 8 points in recent surveys.
MAINE
Democrats' top offensive opportunity is in Maine, the lone state where a Republican incumbent is up for reelection in a state Harris won. Harris carried Maine by nearly 7 points in 2024.
Senator Susan Collins has routinely distanced herself from Trump and declined to appear in the state with him or Vice President JD Vance. During a debate last week, Collins — who voted to convict Trump after he was impeached following the January 6 insurrection — acknowledged that she isn't the president's favorite senator and said he won't be coming to Maine. But she did help Republicans pass their One Big Beautiful Bill despite voting against its final passage, and Democrats hope voters will hold her accountable for helping confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court, which led to the overturning of a federal right to abortion.
Democrats, however, have their own drama. Maine Democrats nominated progressive oysterman Graham Platner, who was pressured into withdrawing following sexual assault allegations, forcing the state party to stage a truncated process to name a new nominee. Platner has denied the allegations.
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, another progressive, emerged as Platner's replacement. But he began his Senate campaign this summer with no money. While Platner had outraised Collins, who chairs the Senate's Appropriations Committee, even he significantly trailed her $11 million in cash.
Republicans have poured more than $50 million into Maine to reelect Collins, nearly double Democrats' $26 million. But the latest polls show Jackson leading by 4 points.
NORTH CAROLINA
Republicans appear to have conceded North Carolina, where a top Republican super PAC has diverted resources to Kansas, a state that wasn't considered to be in play until recently.
US Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican Trump critic, did not seek reelection. Democrats landed a top recruit for the open seat in former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, while Republicans fielded former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley.
Like many Democratic candidates, Cooper has dwarfed his opponent in fundraising, raising $35 million with $21 million on hand. Whatley has brought in $11 million and reported $3.5 million in cash. Republicans' $45 million in spending is almost $20 million more than Democrats'. Yet Cooper has led in polls all through September and into October, some by double digits.
Trump won North Carolina by 3 points in 2024.
OHIO
Ohio is one of four battleground states Trump won by double digits in 2024. Democrats need to win at least two such states to win control of the Senate.
The Democratic nominee is former US Senator Sherrod Brown, who was ousted by Republican US Senator Bernie Moreno last cycle. This time, Brown faces US Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the Senate to replace Vance when he left office for the White House.
The winner of the special election will serve the remainder of Vance's term, which expires in January 2029.
Brown has brought in $39 million and had $16 million in the bank. Husted has raised $14 million with $9 million banked. The race has become one of the most expensive Senate contests in the nation, with upwards of $200 million in outside spending. Republicans alone are responsible for $143 million.
Both candidates have led in recent polls of this toss-up race.
ALASKA
Trump will rally on Tuesday in Alaska, a state he won by 13 points in 2024.
It's also another double-digit Trump state that Republicans could lose. US Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, is running against former US Representative Mary Peltola.
Alaska has ranked-choice voting, a process in which voters rank their top picks rather than choosing a single candidate. Voters will have four choices, including Sullivan, Peltola and another Dan Sullivan, a candidate Republicans have called a decoy in what they believe is an effort by Democrats to confuse voters.
Peltola has outraised Sullivan by $7 million, but the incumbent has a $2.7 million cash advantage. Republicans have outspent Democrats in this race, $28 million to $21 million.
Recent polls show Peltola leading or tied with Sullivan.
IOWA
Trump's unpopularity, tariffs and Iran war have put Republicans on defense in Iowa, where Trump won by 13 points in 2024.
Republican US Senator Joni Ernst's decision not to seek reelection has made this an open-seat contest between Republican US Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist.
Hinson called last month for an "immediate end" to the Iran war in a social media post that said Iowans "shouldn't have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war." Hinson, however, has repeatedly opposed Democratic resolutions in the House of Representatives calling for an end to the war.
Hinson has a $4 million fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Turek, and Republicans have spent $51 million to Democrats' $42 million.
Recent polls show Hinson and Turek with narrow leads.
TEXAS
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. James Talarico, a state representative, could break the cycle, though Democrats also thought the same about Beto O'Rourke and Colin Allred, both of whom lost to Republican US Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 and 2024.
Talarico faces a historically weak Republican nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but Texas is still Texas.
Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. Yet Republicans have already spent a staggering $210 million to hold the seat after runoff voters nominated the scandal-plagued Paxton over incumbent Republican US Senator John Cornyn. Trump endorsed Paxton in the runoff despite Washington Republicans' preference for Cornyn, who was widely believed to have an easier path to victory in a general election.
Leaked audio has exposed daylight between Trump and Paxton, who privately told donors that the president's midterm convention hurt his campaign, which he said he has no control over because it is being run out of Washington, DC.
Democrats have only spent $39 million in the Senate race, but Talarico has outraised Paxton by $60 million and reported nearly $20 million more on hand.
Recent poll results have ranged from a tie to Talarico leading by 6 points.
KANSAS
The political environment has shifted in favor of Democrats so much that Kansas is now in play. Republicans have diverted resources from North Carolina to shore up US Senator Roger Marshall, who in recent weeks has condemned the activity of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in his state.
Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, but the state has twice elected Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. And Republican leaders have publicly acknowledged the race is competitive and closer than they would like it to be.
Marshall's opponent is Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of a Methodist megachurch. Marshall's campaign has outraised Hamilton's by $2 million, and Marshall has $3.7 million more on hand. But Democrats have outspent Republicans, $7.6 million to $4.6 million.
Recent polls show Hamilton leading by between 1 and 5 points.
(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Daniel Wallis)
