By Simon Johnson and Marie Mannes
STOCKHOLM, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Sweden's centre-left opposition looked most likely to take power on Monday after a tight election that reduced the far-right's influence but is unlikely to spell a return to open immigration policies.
Bucking a Europe-wide trend of shifts to the right, preliminary results from Sweden's election projected a narrow three-seat lead for the centre-left opposition over the right-wing ruling bloc of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.
That was driven
mainly by losses for the far-right Sweden Democrats party, which had helped steer the once-liberal nation towards some of Europe's strictest migration rules.
While a centre-left government may take a softer line, it is unlikely to return to the generous, open-door policies of past decades, analysts say, due to voters' unease over the levels of immigration and crime.
"I believe the broader shift towards a stricter Swedish migration policy is, for the most part, here to stay," said Niklas Bohlin, political scientist at the Mid-Sweden University.
Left-leaning parties backing Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson were projected to win 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament while Kristersson's bloc was seen winning 173 seats, the election authority said.
"If this result remains valid, Sweden will get a new government," Andersson told supporters on Sunday night.
A centre-left government would be expected to stick to Sweden's pro-Western and pro-Ukraine stance.
ASYLUM NUMBERS DOWN
On immigration, Andersson's Social Democrats now support a significantly more restrictive approach than the party championed during the refugee crises of the 2010s.
The current government abolished permanent residency for refugees, tightened welfare and stepped up expulsions, bringing asylum numbers to a 40-year low.
The election pitted a fragmented centre-left against a united centre-right that had planned to bring the far-right into the coalition - a step too far for some voters.
Sweden Democrats, with roots in the neo-Nazi fringe and white supremacy, lost an estimated 11 seats, projections showed, the first time the party has seen its share of the vote decline in a parliamentary election.
With the far-right on the front foot across Europe due to disillusionment with established parties, cost of living, and turbulent geopolitics, analysts said the Sweden Democrats' reversal was more likely due to tactical voting than a sign that the far-right had reached a high-water mark.
Party officials attributed the setback partly to its role in supporting government from outside cabinet as well as lingering disquiet about its past.
"There is a group of voters that may like many of our policies but emotionally have a hard time accepting us," said Richard Jomshof, a Sweden Democrat lawmaker.
The party says it has expelled extremists and apologised for its past.
PRELIMINARY TALLY
The parties' leaders have been cautious about claiming victory or accepting defeat with 353 election districts still to be counted and overseas votes not likely to be tallied until Wednesday.
In 2022, exit polls initially gave a narrow victory to the centre-left which proved premature and Kristersson showed no sign of conceding when he spoke after Sunday's election.
The blocs were separated by around 0.4% of votes on Monday morning, only about 29,000 votes out of a total 6.4 million counted.
Andersson has yet to say how she would unite a divided centre-left behind her in a coalition.
"It could very well be a complicated process to form a government," parliament speaker Andreas Norlen told Swedish television.
Andersson has promised voters more spending on welfare, a fairer tax system and a focus on social cohesion. But while the Greens and Left parties want the rich to contribute more, the Centre Party is against a billionaires' tax.
The Centre Party refuses to sit in government with the Left Party and Andersson needs the support of both.
(Reporting by Simon Johnson, Anna Ringstrom, Marie Mannes and Johan Ahlander in Stockholm, Stine Jacobsen in Copenhagen; Writing by Simon Johnson, Anna Ringstrom and Niklas Pollard; Editing by Toby Chopra and Andrew Cawthorne)
