By Jan Lopatka
PRAGUE (Reuters) -Czechs are likely to oust their centre-right government in an election on Friday and Saturday, with polls favouring populist billionaire Andrej Babis to return to power on pledges to raise wages and lift growth while reducing aid for Ukraine.
The change would boost Europe's populist anti-immigration camp and could complicate consensus on climate policies.
Czechs endured inflation surges after the global pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and have had a slow recovery
from one of Europe's worst drops in real incomes.
That is lingering in voters' minds and hurts the popularity of Prime Minister Petr Fiala's Spolu coalition and its liberal government allies who focused on lowering the budget deficit.
Czechs are used to change - no sitting government has won a second term since 1996.
Babis is an ally of Hungary's Viktor Orban in the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament, and has taken an ambivalent line on aid to Ukraine in a departure from Fiala's government which quickly took a firm stance to support Kyiv after Russia's 2022 attack.
While donating less than others financially, the Czechs were among the first to donate tanks and fighting vehicles and set up the "Czech initiative" pulling together traders and defence officials to find millions of artillery rounds around the world for Kyiv with financing from western countries.
Babis pledges to end the ammunition project, saying it is overpriced and he wants NATO and the EU to handle Ukraine.
"We don't have the money here for our people. Our programme is for a better life for Czech citizens... We are not in Ukraine," Babis, 71, said in a Wednesday debate on CNN Prima News television.
ANO SHORT OF ALLIES
ANO is expected to win over 30% of the vote, about 10 points more than Fiala's Spolu coalition, but even with a small ally called Motorists it will likely lack a majority in the 200-seat lower house of parliament.
ANO's sour relations with Spolu and its allies mean ANO may need support from anti-EU and anti-NATO fringe parties, the far-right SPD and the far-left Stacilo!, for its preferred one-party cabinet.
Babis rejects any steps toward exit from the EU or NATO, including calls for referendums, countering accusations by the current government that he would drag the country off its democratic pro-Western course.
"This fear-mongering will scare many voters, but that is a pity as it is not based on the truth," Martin Klihavec, an entrepreneur voting ANO, said at a Babis rally in Kralupy near Prague earlier this week.
"Under Babis' previous government, I was better off."
Babis must also overcome other hurdles to become prime minister. As the owner of a chemicals and food empire, he needs to find a way to comply with conflict of interest laws. He also faces a trial on fraud charges related to drawing an EU subsidy more than 15 years ago, a charge he denies.
Spolu and its allies could retain a majority if some small parties win less than the 5% needed to get into parliament, a scenario that helped them in the last election but is unlikely to be repeated, according to pollsters.
Polls will be open from 2 p.m. (1200 GMT) until 10 p.m. on Friday and from 8 a.m. until 2 p.m. on Saturday, and results are expected on Saturday afternoon.
(Reporting by Jan Lopatka)
