By Parisa Hafezi
DUBAI (Reuters) -On Tehran's bustling streets, signs of change are unmistakable. Women walk unveiled in jeans and sneakers, men and women linger together in cafés where Western music hums
softly, and couples stroll hand-in-hand — subtle acts that chip away at the rigid social codes that have long defined the Islamic Republic.
But beneath the surface, a darker reality is unfolding. Iran's clerical rulers are intensifying a crackdown on political dissent to instil fear and prevent unrest, four activists inside Iran told Reuters.
Hundreds of journalists, lawyers, students, writers, and human rights advocates have been harassed, summoned, detained, or subjected to other punitive measures in recent months, according to rights groups and activists.
The authorities' strategy is calculated: relax visible restrictions to soothe public opinion amid Iran's growing economic isolation, while quietly intensifying a crackdown on political dissent, three Iranian officials and one former senior reformist official said.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, based in Washington D.C., said the strategy shows "tactical management" but the government's red lines remain firm.
"That contradiction is deliberate: a release valve for the public, coupled with a hard ceiling on genuine dissent," Vatanka said.
Iran's clerical rulers are facing one of their gravest tests since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Conflict with Israel left Iranian military and nuclear sites badly damaged in June, and has dismantled its regional network of allies - from Hamas in Gaza to Lebanon's Hezbollah and militias in Iraq.
At home, the economy is reeling from the collapse of the rial currency, soaring inflation, and crippling energy and water shortages.
"Iran is in uncharted territory, and the regime’s current approach is less a coherent strategy than a series of short-term experiments aimed at surviving a volatile moment."
Iran's foreign ministry and justice ministry did not respond to requests for comment for this story.
The hijab, a flashpoint during the protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini — a young woman detained in 2022 for allegedly violating the mandatory hijab law — is now being enforced selectively.
Fearing a resurgence of nationwide protests amid growing public frustration, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has refused to implement a hardline-backed "Hijab and Chastity" law, approved late last year.
Online, a stream of glossy videos paints a picture of a vibrant, welcoming Iran. Foreign travel influencers — some invited and sponsored by the government — post wide-eyed reactions to ancient ruins, bustling bazaars, and lavish meals. Often they portray the country as misunderstood and unfairly maligned.
Their content, shared with millions of followers, is part of the clerical establishment's effort to rebrand Iran as a safe and alluring destination.
Meanwhile, viral video clips from recent street concerts show young Iranians dancing unveiled, singing along to pop ballads in controlled venues — scenes unimaginable two years ago.
EASING SOCIAL FREEDOMS TO MASK CLAMPDOWN
But critics say these spectacles are carefully choreographed, designed to project openness while masking a deepening crackdown.
Iran's execution rate has surged to levels not seen since 1989. As of October 21, authorities had executed at least 1,176 people in 2025 — an average of four per day — according to the UN Human Rights Office.
"Pressure is mounting — from threats to our families, to arrests of activists, students and journalists. They want to crush dissent," said one activist, jailed in 2019 during protests over fuel price hikes that quickly turned political, with protesters demanding "regime change".
All of the activists spoke on condition of anonymity, from fear of reprisals.
Iran's ruling elite are caught between discontent at home and stalled nuclear talks with Washington to end a decades-long dispute — a combination that has left the country politically and financially isolated.
A snapback of U.N. sanctions in September because of the failure to reach a nuclear deal could significantly increase pressure on Iran's economy, further restricting its trade with countries that have previously disregarded unilateral U.S. sanctions.
Moreover, in Tehran’s power corridors, concern is mounting over the prospect of renewed Israeli strikes on Iran if diplomacy with the U.S. collapses, the officials said — a scenario that would further exacerbate the establishment's already deepening internal and external pressures.
The United States and Israel have warned they will not hesitate to hit Iran again if it resumes enrichment of uranium, a possible pathway to developing nuclear weapons. Iran denies seeking nuclear bombs.
Tehran, which says it welcomes a “peaceful” nuclear deal, has threatened a forceful retaliation if attacked again.
"The risk of renewed mass unrest is real; Iran's society remains angry, disillusioned, and convinced that the economic and diplomatic dead end will not lift,” said Vatanka.
Vatanka said Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s strategy appears two-track.
"Externally, he keeps a narrow diplomatic door open to avoid a war with Israel or the United States. Internally, he is experimenting with calibrated concessions," he said.
INCREASED NUMBER OF EXECUTIONS
The clampdown on political dissent has intensified after a 12-day war in June with Israel, which killed several senior military figures in the Iranian leadership and shook its foundations.
The second activist said loosening social restrictions is a way to keep people off the streets.
"But it's just a band-aid. I have been summoned and threatened by security authorities since the end of the war in June," the second activist said. "They have threatened to arrest my younger brother if I engage in any political activity."
The justice ministry did not respond to questions about the activists' claims of threats following the conflict.
In the war's aftermath, authorities invoked national security to justify the sweeping crackdown. Iran’s judiciary ordered swift trials for those accused of collaborating with Israel, while parliament passed legislation expanding the death penalty for espionage.
The new law also targets online activity, criminalising posts deemed to spread "false information."
More than 21,000 people were arrested, according to Iran's judiciary — including journalists, activists, and members of minority groups such as Kurds, Baluchis and Arabs.
Members of the Baha’i religious minority have been accused of being “Zionist spies,” and some were arrested in house raids, with their property confiscated, according to rights organisations.
"International pressure is mounting, and they fear losing their grip on power — so they tighten it at home on political dissent," said the former senior reformist official, who had spent years in prison for “acting against national security” because of his political views.
(Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Daniel Flynn)
