By Ernest Scheyder and Jarrett Renshaw
July 27 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's push to end Washington's reliance on Chinese critical minerals by January is colliding with a stark reality: American miners and processors aren't ready.
Trump has made U.S. mining and processing of critical minerals a national security priority since returning to office, pouring tens of billions of dollars into nearly 150 minerals companies to loosen China's grip on supply chains for weapons and other strategic
products.
The defense industry and other manufacturers are now just over five months away from a January 1, 2027, deadline under federal regulations to stop purchasing rare earths, magnets, tungsten, molybdenum and tantalum from China, Russia, Iran or North Korea.
Washington has been trying to limit such imports for years but has routinely granted companies waivers because the U.S. supply can't meet the demand.
Trump railed against such waivers in a May 10 post on his Truth Social platform, saying: "ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES MUST BUY AMERICAN — NO EXCUSES!" Last Monday, he signed an executive order making it even harder for defense contractors to obtain waivers.
But the reality is that U.S. minerals companies are nowhere close to meeting domestic needs, according to interviews with 16 industry executives, investors, analysts and policymakers.
In 2025, U.S. demand for the most-common type of rare earth magnet, for example, was roughly 48,000 metric tons while domestic sources supplied 300 metric tons, according to data from the Arthur D. Little consultancy. U.S. firms are on track to have the capacity to produce 5,000 metric tons by year-end.
Rare earths, which are among the 60 minerals considered critical by Washington, must be processed before they are turned into magnets used to make weapons, automobiles, computers and other products.
U.S. firms haven't produced tungsten since 2015 and tantalum since 1959. Guardian Metal Resources is working to open a U.S. tungsten mine by 2028, while Lion Rock Resources is developing a tantalum mine in South Dakota, with no timeline for opening.
Chris Berry, a minerals industry analyst and consultant, said the U.S. industry has little chance of producing enough minerals to end waivers by January.
"It's going to take many more years to get the needed infrastructure in the ground to compete," said Berry.
The United States has reserves of most critical minerals; what it lacks is the capacity to mine and process many of them. China grew to dominate the minerals-refining industry in the late 20th century and controls more than 80% of the sector today. The International Energy Agency warned this month that $6.5 trillion of global manufacturing is at risk if Beijing imposes export restrictions on rare earths, as it has periodically in recent years.
Asked for comment, the White House referred to Trump's executive order, which says waivers can only be issued if a contractor shows an "exhaustive effort" to avoid Chinese material and has a timeline for weaning itself off such supply.
The Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment.
U.S. rare earths investment has been hindered by persistently low prices for many minerals, which Washington blames on China subsidizing its producers and flooding the market with cheap products, thus making American projects unprofitable.
China has repeatedly said it abides by World Trade Organization rules on global trade and works to ensure stable markets. A representative for the Chinese embassy in Washington had no further comment.
Ucore Rare Metals, a minerals refining startup backed by the Pentagon, has developed a processing technology known as RapidSX that it believes is similar to but faster, cleaner and cheaper than the industry standard solvent extraction.
Ucore had planned to start refining by 2025 but has reworked its plans due to what it says are changing demands from the Pentagon. It now won't begin some production until 2027 at the earliest, company CEO Pat Ryan told Reuters.
"Can the entire supply chain be propped up by 2027? Boy, I tell you, that's a battle," Ryan said.
TRUMP MOVES TO STOCKPILE IMPORTED MINERALS
The Trump administration in February launched Project Vault, a $12 billion effort to stockpile critical minerals for American manufacturers. Officials acknowledged in April that they will need to initially buy minerals from "anywhere in the world," including China.
Defense contractor Lockheed Martin has given a list of minerals to the Department of Defense it would like stockpiled, CEO Jim Taiclet said at a conference earlier this month.
That push for stockpiling irks U.S. minerals companies who say they need defense contractors to place orders with them.
"Defense contractors have just assumed they can keep buying Chinese products," said Nick Myers, CEO of Massachusetts-based Phoenix Tailings, a minerals startup that last month received a $500 million Pentagon loan to build a processing facility. "The defense industry is never going to stop if you keep giving waivers."
Defense contractors Boeing, General Dynamics, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Northrop Grumman and RTX did not respond to requests for comment. L3Harris Technologies declined to comment.
DELAYS, UNCERTAINTIES FOR US MINERALS REFINING PROJECTS
The complexity of refining minerals has slowed down U.S. projects.
Partnerships with South Korea, Japan and other allies may offer a bridge for manufacturers until U.S. suppliers can ramp up operations, said Samantha Carl-Yoder of the law and lobbying firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck.
Among the biggest U.S. companies in the field, MP Materials, which is financially supported by the Pentagon, spent years calibrating its solvent extraction processing equipment, part of what CEO Jim Litinsky described as a "painstaking" process.
MP has built a magnet facility in Texas and said it expects to have some magnets approved for use by its first customer, General Motors, by the end of the year. A separate magnet facility that MP is building for the Pentagon is slated to open in 2028.
In Marion, Indiana, ReElement Technologies plans to process minerals using a technology common in the pharmaceutical industry. Known as chromatography, the technology has never been used to process large volumes of minerals.
ReElement said it aims this year to build the capacity to process 10,000 metric tons of germanium or other minerals. In a statement, ReElement CEO Mark Jensen said the company's germanium production is "profitable at any volume." ReElement received a $25 million Pentagon investment earlier this month.
Another company, USA Rare Earth, spent more than five years studying chromatography before pivoting to solvent extraction, a source with direct knowledge of the company's strategy said. USA Rare Earth, which is building a South Carolina magnet facility, declined to comment on its processing research.
Elsewhere, Energy Fuels, which last month received a $725 million Pentagon loan, plans to be processing small amounts of rare earths by the end of the year and 6,000 metric tons annually by 2029. It is buying an existing U.S. magnet producer.
Ucore, Energy Fuels and ReElement have each agreed to supply rare earths to magnet maker Vulcan Elements, which is building a North Carolina manufacturing plant, slated to open by 2030.
(Reporting by Ernest Scheyder and Jarrett Renshaw; Editing by Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons)
