TOKYO/BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) - China may rethink its escalating pressure campaign on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi if she delivers a resounding victory in a February 8 snap election, say current and former Japanese officials and political analysts.
Weeks after taking office last year, Takaichi touched off the biggest diplomatic dispute with Beijing in over a decade, by publicly outlining how Tokyo might respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, the self-ruled island claimed by China.
Beijing
demanded she retract the remarks, which she has not done, and then rolled out a series of retaliatory measures that are starting to weigh on the world’s fourth largest economy.
"China's initial thinking was probably to try to bring down the Takaichi government," said Kazuhisa Shimada, a former vice minister of defence.
"This election is extremely important... a weak government simply won't be taken seriously."
Japan's first female leader hopes to capitalise on her high personal approval ratings, hardly dented by the China row, to bolster her coalition's razor-thin majority in parliament.
A poll showed on Thursday that she may be on course to do just that, though analysts have described the ballot as Japan's most unpredictable in years.
A big win will help send a message to Beijing that its attacks have not damaged her domestically, a senior Japanese government official said, speaking on condition of anonymity as the matter is a sensitive one.
China's economic curbs on one of its top trading partners could also backfire, while attempts to cast Takaichi as a dangerous ideologue reviving Japan's militaristic past is failing to gain traction internationally, the official added.
Those factors should eventually force China to re-engage with Japan, he said.
So far, however, Beijing has showed no signs of backing down.
China's foreign ministry declined to answer specific questions for this report.
It referred to remarks by spokesperson Guo Jiakun at a January 27 press conference that Takaichi had "severely threatened" the "political foundation of China-Japan relations".
A Chinese official, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that the election may bring Takaichi short‑term political gain but warned that Japanese people would ultimately see the diplomatic and economic price for crossing China.
Takaichi, who has said she will resign if her coalition loses its majority, did not respond to a request for comment sent to her office.
CALLING OUT COERCION
While domestic cost-of-living issues have dominated the campaign, tensions with China loom large, threatening Japan's weak economic growth and spurring the government to step up efforts to boost security.
Unveiling the election decision on January 19, Takaichi called out Chinese military exercises around Taiwan and "economic coercion".
China's retaliation for her earlier remarks on Taiwan have included a state-directed boycott on travel to Japan that almost halved the number of Chinese visitors in December.
Beijing is also weighing curbs on exports of rare earths and critical minerals, Chinese state media said. Analysts at Daiwa Institute of Research say such a ban could shave up to 3% from Japan's GDP, or about $117 billion, and cost 2 million jobs.
More than two-thirds of Japanese firms expect frayed ties with China to affect the economy, a Reuters survey showed this month, with an Asahi newspaper survey showing 60% of voters were concerned about the economic impact, up from 53% in December.
Economic anxiety may have factored into Takaichi's decision to call the election now, said Paul Midford, professor of international studies at Meiji Gakuin University in Yokohama. The next lower house vote did not have to be held until late 2028.
FOLLOWING HER MENTOR
Takaichi's decision to try and solidify power may also be influenced by memories of her mentor, former premier Shinzo Abe, who returned to power in 2012 during an earlier period of high tension with China, said Shimada, the former vice minister.
"Abe kept winning elections and built an extremely solid political base," he said. "Once that happened, China had no choice but to deal with the Abe government."
Abe oversaw a convincing upper house election win in 2013 and met Chinese President Xi Jinping in late 2014, just before his ruling coalition delivered another large majority in a lower house vote.
A key metric of Takaichi's success will be whether her party can deliver a majority on its own, said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia with political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
That would require 35 seats in addition to the 198 it now controls in the 465-seat lower house.
"If she is able to do this, it would signal to Beijing that she will likely remain as prime minister for a few years and China’s pressure campaign against her has backfired," said Chan, a former U.S. diplomat in both China and Japan.
"Conversely, Beijing would likely increase its coercion against Japan if Takaichi wins only a small victory."
(Reporting by John Geddie, Tamiyuki Kihara and Tim Kelly in Tokyo and Antoni Slodkowski in Beijing; Additional reporting by Kaori Kaneko in Tokyo and Laurie Chen in Beijing; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
