The 2026 Atlantic hurricane seasonwas predicted to be quiet - if no hurricanes form by late November, 2026 will mark only the third time such a season has passed without a hurricane being recorded.
An Aug. 6 news release from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration made updates to storm predictions for this year's season. The release predicted 7-13 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these, 2-6 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including 0-2 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
These estimates are significantly below average for an Atlantic hurricane season, with predictions of a historically strong El Niño event contributing to the unusually calm estimates. As of mid-September, only five
tropical storms have been recorded, and not a single hurricane, in the Atlantic.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
NOAA information shows that the first named storm of the season usually forms in mid to late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September.
Is a hurricane developing in the Atlantic?
The National Hurricane Center was highlighting an area about 600 miles east of Bermuda early on Sept. 16 - while it is forecast to enter an area favorable for development in several days, the agency gives only about a 30% chance of cyclone formation in seven days.
"This swirl is associated with a storm in the middle layer of the atmosphere," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"Sometimes storms like this spin down to the surface, and if conditions allow, they can evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm."
Have there been any hurricanes in the Atlantic this year?
As of Sept. 16, no hurricanes have been reported during this year's Atlantic hurricane season. If this year's Atlantic season has no hurricanes by Nov. 30, it will be only the third time in history that the season has passed without the development of a hurricane.
Why is Atlantic hurricane season 2026 so quiet?
In its report on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA noted in the report that this year's predictions are below normal compared to an average Atlantic hurricane season, which includes 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The presence of El Niño conditions, which tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, was identified as a major factor in the expected decrease in activity.
What is El Niño? La Niña?
NOAA explains that El Niño and La Niña are opposing climate patterns that break normal conditions of water and weather in the Pacific Ocean. The patterns have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems and economies.
La Niña: La Niña, meaning "Little Girl" in Spanish, brings stronger trade winds to the Pacific, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
Cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward, tending to lead to drought in the Southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. La Niña can also result in a more severe Atlantic hurricane season.
El Niño: During El Niño, meaning "Little Boy" in Spanish, conditions are reversed. Trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas.
El Niño can also affect the weather significantly. Warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south, causing the northern U.S. and Canada to become drier and warmer than usual. In the Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
As previously reported by the Citizen Times, NOAA and the National Weather Service announced on June 11 that El Niño had developed in the tropical Pacific, issuing an El Niño advisory.
Iris Seaton is the trending news reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at iseaton@citizentimes.com.
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Atlantic 2026 hurricane season remains quiet. Why NC hasn't seen storms
