NOAA predicts just how wet it could get in NC could get in fall 2026

Fall is on the way to North Carolina, and many organizations have released temperature and precipitation predictions for the incoming cooler season. The Citizen Times has previously covered weather predictions from the Farmer's Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac for fall and winter 2026 in the Western

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What is the story about?

Fall is on the way to North Carolina, and many organizations have released temperature and precipitation predictions for the incoming cooler season.

The Citizen Times has previously covered weather predictions from the Farmer's Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac for fall and winter 2026 in the Western N.C. region. On Aug. 20, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its long-range forecast for the months of October through December in the U.S.

Meteorologists with NOAA, under which the Climate Prediction Center operates, issue three-month predictions on contoured maps, showing the probability of above or below-average temperatures and precipitation through designated colors.

Here's what NOAA found for North Carolina this year and

more.

Will it be warm this fall in North Carolina?

In North Carolina, NOAA predicts equal chances of above and below normal temperatures in much of the state, with the exception of a southeast section where temperatures are expected to be above normal at a 40-50% likelihood.

Will it be a rainy fall in North Carolina?

As for precipitation, some of the Tar Heel State is placed at equal chances for above and below normal levels, while much of the southeastern portion of the state is placed at a 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation.

Will it be warm this fall in the U.S.?

According to NOAA's full temperature map, much of the nation is expected to see above average temperatures between October and December, with highest likelihood of above normal temperatures - 40-60% certainty according to NOAA - measured in the northwestern corner of the nation and weakening in confidence as predictions spread southeast.

Additionally, some states are placed at an equal chance of seeing above and below normal temperatures, primarily in the southeastern section of the state, with the exception of Florida's southernmost corner.

The NOAA's 2026 October-December long range temperature outlook.

Will it be rainy this fall in the U.S.?

NOAA's precipitation outlook is slightly more mixed, with the portion of the U.S. expected to see above-normal temperatures at a confidence between 33-50% largely located in the southern half of the country. Several sections of the country are expected to see below-normal precipitation at a 33-40% confidence, primarily in the far northwestern corner of the states as well as a far northeastern corner.

The NOAA's 2026 October-December long range precipitation outlook.