The midterm election could change the direction of the state as Arizona Democrats again hope to win control of the statehouse for the first time in decades.
Polling suggests Democrats have an advantage, as the national economy and President Donald Trump's tumultuous second term in the White House have created headwinds for Republicans.
That has fueled Democratic optimism of continuing the party's control of top statewide offices for another four years. It has renewed the party's perennial goal of flipping the state Legislature, which Republicans currently control.
The environment has lobbyists preparing for the possibility that long-suffering Democratic lawmakers could decide which policy proposals advance at the Capitol for the first time since
the 1960s. It's also sparked discussion behind the scenes about how Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs would lead majorities of her own party if voters give her a second term.
Water regulation, education funding and economic policy are among the areas that could see major changes depending on the outcome of the Nov. 3 election. The state's top offices, both chambers of the Legislature and control of Congress hang in the balance.
For Democrats to take control in the Legislature would require several upset victories in both chambers. The GOP holds the majority, outnumbering Democrats by 17-13 in the state Senate and 33-27 in the state House of Representatives.
Former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon, a Republican, predicted a rough year for his party if the polling holds, given the economic reality and midterm trends that favor the party not in power.
Will that momentum hold down ballot and yield Democratic majorities at the Capitol? It's possible, Salmon said. But he's heard that optimism before.
"That never seems to materialize," he said.
The last time Democrats held the majority in the Senate, Salmon was a state senator. It was 1992, and Democrats outnumbered Republicans 17-13. They lost their majority the next year. The last time Democrats controlled both chambers at the same time was 1966.
Chuck Coughlin, president of the conservative consulting firm HighGround in Phoenix, said his team has already begun discussing what would happen if Democrats win control of the Legislature. The firm's polling in mid-October showed Hobbs with a double-digit lead over Republican nominee Andy Biggs.
The public is fatigued by the president's chaotic leadership style, Coughlin said.
"I don't see anything that Republicans are saying to change the narrative," he said. "Trump's a one-man band, and nobody's in his way."
"This is the best chance we've ever had to take a chamber," said Phoenix-based Democratic consultant Stacy Pearson.
Both chambers are toss-ups, meaning either party could win, according to analysis and predictions by Louis Jacobson. Jacobson, who writes for PolitiFact and Sabato's Crystal Ball, has predicted legislative power for more than two decades.
Since 2014, Jacobson has ranked each chamber as increasingly competitive as Democrats have whittled away at GOP majorities at the Arizona Capitol and the chambers have become more evenly split. In 2024, he considered both the House and Senate toss-ups. Despite Democratic optimism that year, Republicans grew their majorities and Arizona voters helped give Trump a second term.
Jacobson wrote that Democrats "have a real shot" at flipping the chambers this year, but the margins are close enough they're still considered toss-ups.
Legislative shakeup could change state's trajectory
Democratic control of the Legislature would mark a sea change in Arizona politics.
It would give Democrats the ability to refer legislation to the ballot for voters' approval, or advance Hobbs' agency chief nominees, whose confirmation Republicans have slow-walked or blocked. Democrats would also chair the Legislature's committees, gaining the ability to advance or block bills and control what would come up for a wider vote.
The coming session could see renewed negotiations over Proposition 123, the funding mechanism that sent increased state land trust funds toward education until it expired in 2025. Hobbs and Republican leaders have for four years identified an extension as a priority but have been unable to agree on the details. Nothing has been sent to voters.
Lawmakers also face questions about water policy amid upcoming cuts to Arizona's share of Colorado River water.
Democrats have amassed a long list of priorities they say are underfunded in Arizona government: Higher education, workforce development, social safety net programs, and child care are among them. With increased control over the Legislature, the party would face questions over whether to use the budget process or other mechanisms to close those funding gaps, and if so, where the money would come from.
In some areas, Democratic control could be paradigm-shifting. In the Legislature's natural resources committees, state Rep. Gail Griffin has for years stymied proposals that would regulate rural groundwater. She argues her lighter regulatory touch has protected economic growth, property rights and individual liberties in the state. Issues like artificial intelligence and data centers have begun dividing both caucuses.
In other areas, it may not be much of a change at all. Many Democrats back the state's big economic development decisions: supporting the burgeoning semiconductor industry, copper mining, technology and research, and more.
"We'll be able to get back to functional government, have department heads confirmed, get rid of this election-denying, tin-foil-hat-wearing, wackadoodle behavior," said Pearson, a Democrat.
Hobbs' relationship with the Legislature
For the past four years, divided government at the state Capitol has led to countless partisan spats and for Hobbs, more than 500 vetoes of GOP-backed bills. But the governor, known for her moderate approach, could face a challenge of a different sort and from her own party if Democrats win trifecta control over the Legislature and Governor's Office.
Coughlin predicted that if Democrats flip the Legislature, there would be pressure on Hobbs to govern with a progressive agenda.
That pressure could place concrete decisions on Hobbs' desk, he said: "If the Democrats send you a bill to repeal vouchers, are you gonna sign that?"
Regardless of which party controls the Legislature, Salmon predicted Hobbs' centrist leadership style might shift.
"I think if she's successful, Arizona is going to take a big lunge to the left when it comes to policies," Salmon said. That could come through the use of her executive power if the GOP majorities hold, or through working hand-in-hand with Democrats if they take control.
Serving in a second and final term, Hobbs might not feel pressure to win another election.
"She has nothing to hold her back at that point," Salmon said.
Hobbs said in a statement her leadership style during a potential second term wouldn't waver.
“No matter which party controls the Legislature, I’ll govern the same way I always have — by putting Arizona first and working with anyone who is serious about delivering real results,” she said. “In my second term, I’ll remain focused on tackling the challenges facing our state, including lowering costs, protecting our water, keeping our communities safe, and strengthening public education."
Biggs, her GOP opponent, has said Democratic majorities combined with Hobbs’ leadership would be too liberal for the swing state. On the campaign trail, Biggs often pledges to sign bills backed by Republicans that Hobbs has vetoed. Biggs is running on a ticket with former state Sen. Sine Kerr.
“If you keep Katie Hobbs, you will get California. If you elect Biggs/Kerr, you get Florida — except better,” Biggs said during an Oct. 14 rally with Trump in Bullhead City.
Lobbyists brace for a possible shake-up
The possible changes aren't lost on the professional corps of lobbyists tasked with winning over state lawmakers.
Even the possibility of a shake-up is a "huge deal" for lobbyists, Coughlin said. He and his team have begun contemplating what the new landscape could look like. They have been discussing possibilities, like which Democrats might take the reins of leadership if the party wins a majority.
Democrats should "make sure we're not just renting this position," Pearson said. But she relishes the thought of what would happen if her party finally wins a majority.
"I am so excited to see people who patted me on the head for the last 20 years ask me for a favor," she said.
Laura Gersony covers politics for The Arizona Republic. Contact her at Laura.Gersony@usatodayco.com or 480-372-0389. Reach reporter Stacey Barchenger at stacey.barchenger@arizonarepublic.com or 480-416-5669.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: How a Democratic wave year could change Arizona politics
